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A new round of talks between Israel and Hamas. What to expect? | Policy

Political analysts believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Only he could resolve the issue of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement with the Islamic resistance movement (agitation), given the weakness of the US President Joe Biden Now.

Dr. Muhannad Mustafa, a scholar and expert on Israeli affairs, believes that the current enthusiasm of Israel stems from three factors: the first is the enthusiasm of the security and military institutions to stop the war, and the second is the enthusiasm for political purposes. Netanyahu hopes to maintain the current situation. In addition, Hamas has also shown flexibility in the transition from the first stage to the second stage of the US-Israel proposal.

Mustafa explained that Netanyahu is pursuing a strategy of buying time based on “negotiation for the sake of negotiation” and issued a statement saying that he will not stop the war until his goals are achieved, and also accused Hamas of obstruction with the assistance of the United States.

It is believed that Netanyahu is currently in a strong and easy position to reject the deal, because the US pressure is not what it was before, given Biden’s weakness, and also because the protests within Israel have not yet turned into a large-scale popular revolution.

Today, Thursday, Netanyahu informed the US president by phone of his decision to send a delegation to continue negotiations on the release of detainees, while the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (Mossad) David Barnea will lead the Israeli delegation to the Doha talks.

In the same context, Mustafa stressed that the mini-cabin Israel In addition to the difficulties faced by the troops remaining in Palestine, he would not accept the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. Philadelphia Axis Along the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt.

Netanyahu may therefore resort to far-right solutions on the basis of granting the latter. Bank of the West Mustafa said that in exchange for independent management of the Gaza archive, a policy of delay and procrastination would be adopted, and it would not be excluded that the former would try to find a solution. Israeli parliament Entering a transitional government that ends with the conclusion of the US presidential election.

As for the dispute with the security and military establishment, Israeli affairs experts said the army’s power lies in influencing the mood of the Israeli public, which could put more pressure on the government.

“Flexible, no compromise”

Said Ziad, a researcher on political and strategic affairs, believes that Hamas's proposal to mediators to stop the war “cannot be seen as a concession, but rather as pragmatism to break the deadlock.”

Ziad noted that the movement is adhering to red lines such as ceasefire, withdrawal, prisoner exchange, return of displaced persons and reconstruction.

He noted that Hamas’ flexibility is consistent with the resistance factions’ efforts to end the war and seize the initiative, while Netanyahu is clinging to his vision of continuing the war despite cracks on the internal front.

He believes that four environments are developing during the current war, most of which are favorable to the resistance, namely the Israeli Army establishment, whose opinion, he said, will be decisive in the transition to the third stage, as well as the regional environment and the field environment of the resistance movement's adaptability and flexibility, and the US-Israel relations brought about by the weaknesses of the Biden administration.

Washington's position

Michael Mulroy, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, said that it is in Israel's interest to have a ceasefire, while the United States wants an immediate ceasefire to reduce the possibility of conflict between the two countries. Hezbollah And Tel Aviv.

Mulroy stressed that the Biden administration wants a ceasefire in Gaza for two reasons: the first reason involves overall U.S. policy, and it also involves domestic policy related to the presidential election, especially considering that swing states including Michigan will make the decision.

But he made it clear that it was Israel and Hamas that made the decision to ceasefire, and that reaching an agreement was in the interests of both sides.

He concluded that discussions about a ceasefire are serious, while stressing that Washington will pay attention to what is discussed, especially rhetoric that could confuse the public given Netanyahu's desire to wait until the US election next November.


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