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After Hezbollah's response to the assassination of “Abu Nimma” … what to expect? | Policy

Beirut – As part of the response, there have been notable developments and major escalations on the front line in southern Lebanon Hezbollah About the assassination of Mohammad Nimma Nasser, the head of the southern “Aziz” forces and leader known as “Abu Nimma”, whose leadership was equivalent to the Taliban Sami Abdullah Haji “Abu Talib”, who was assassinated by Israel in June last year.

In response to the assassination, Hezbollah launched about 200 missiles and launched attack aircraft to launch air strikes on multiple locations in the Upper Galilee, Lower Galilee, Western Galilee, Golan Heights and Acre, including the newly established 91st Division headquarters in “Eyelit”. The military camp, the northern region intelligence center of the Israeli “Mishaal” base, and the “Irena” base of the 143rd Division are 35 kilometers from the southern border of Lebanon.

Big development

While the attacks are considered the largest and most widespread between Hezbollah and Israel since the start of the Gaza war, Israeli media confirmed that soldiers were seriously injured after a military vehicle was hit, and Israel's Channel 13 said hundreds of soldiers were fired upon by rockets and drones in the past hour.

Hashim Safi al-Din, chairman of Hezbollah's executive committee, said at a memorial service for Commander Abu Nima: “This chain of reactions continues to this day, and this chain of reactions will continue to target new locations that the enemy did not expect to hit.”

Political researcher Hadi Kubaisi, interpreting the impact of the assassination of leader “Abu Nima”, believes that what happened today represents a significant advance for Hezbollah in terms of the scale and objectives of its operations, as well as its geographical depth. Entering the final stage, the two sides entered the usual routine phase of reaction and balance.

Regarding the response scenario after today's developments, he believes that it is possible that Israel will respond somewhere, but after careful consideration, “if things are reversed and a response of the same breadth, scale and depth is made, then we may be faced with a strong intention on the part of the Israelis to escalate to a certain extent and embark on a new path.”

Kubais noted that the resistance will move in the direction of continuing to respond, possibly at the same pace as today, or in other forms and ways, and on different schedules, not necessarily every day.

Hezbollah leader Haji Abu Nima Mohammad Nima Nasser was assassinated Source: https://x.com/sharazori1988/status/1808519770112725231
Hezbollah leader Hajj Abu Nimah in charge of Aziz's forces in southern Lebanon (communications site)

Continuity of response

Retired Brigadier General Hisham Jaber described the assassination as a “painful blow to the party”, adding that the response was swift, as it happened when Abu Talib was assassinated. “If we are asked today whether this response was sufficient, my answer is that it has a second part: if Hezbollah considers the first response to be neither sufficient nor painful, it will wait for its impact on the ground,” he told Al Jazeera.

On the possible scenario of expanding the war, the retired brigadier general added that possibilities are open, including expanding the number, type and geographical scope of military operations.

Jaber said Israel would not hesitate to continue its assassination campaign, which raises the question of whether Israel would violate certain red lines or conduct major operations that would be considered part of the framework of a “broad war” or would it become a “big war”? As mentioned earlier, “limited operations” whether by land, sea or air.

In his response to the question: If Hezbollah conducts an operation, will Hezbollah consider it limited? Or will it believe that the enemy has opened a wide front and will begin to respond in less than an hour? Jaber replied that he believes “a large-scale war will not break out now, especially after Israeli experts and the president said Mossad Former generals say Israel's military is suffering from fatigue and will need two years to recover and reorganize.

Jaber said the retired brigadier general noted that psychological warfare and threats as well as security and intelligence operations, including assassination operations, were continuing, and that psychological warfare and pressure on Hezbollah could help avoid a field war.

Unprecedented Levels

Political analyst Faisal Abdul Saat confirmed that Hezbollah stepped up its strikes today after the assassination of its leader Abu Nima, an escalation that is unprecedented at all levels, both in terms of the number of missiles launched and the number of target locations. “The Israeli enemy even admitted what happened in Acre, which shows that Hezbollah has the initiative.”

Abdul Sater explained to Al Jazeera that the Israelis are fully aware that any large-scale battle or war they launch against Hezbollah will be costly due to the capabilities, combat experience and leadership of Hezbollah and its officers and members. In addition to its weapons capabilities, its strength is also recognized by everyone.

From his perspective, “the Israelis have no choice in this situation, and everything he advocates reflects his desire to have the Americans and the Western coalition join him in any major war against Hezbollah, because he is fully aware that it will not be a piece of cake.”

He noted that the Israelis are trying to accept the defeat of their army, security and military forces in front of Hezbollah under various pretexts, such as their desire for the return of residents of the northern areas to their original homes. Evacuation.

Abdul Sater believes there will be a scenario of a “general strike” followed by attempts at indirect negotiations, but is unsure whether Hezbollah will ignore the matter, especially if it goes beyond the assassination of certain leaders or figures on the scene to something bigger than that, or if there is a major blow to Hezbollah's leadership, which could lead to an all-out war.


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