Georgia’s with EU membership and risks of rapprochement with Russia

Moscow- Since Russia launched its so-called special military operation in Ukraine in February 2021, no country has been as surprised by the situation in this war as Georgia, which launched a fierce war with Russia in August 2008, namely The so-called Ossetian War saw Russia and South Ossetia declare themselves independent states after they separated from Georgia as autonomous republics.

Surprisingly, Georgia, listed as an enemy of Russia, did not join the sanctions war against Moscow, contrary to everyone’s expectations, especially since Tbilisi has directed all its political power towards European and Atlantic integration.

It is known that the country’s political forces competed with each other in favor of joining the West’s geopolitical plans in the South Caucasus, leading to NATO.

On February 26, 2022, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili called on the international community to do all it could to stop the fighting, and after a year of war and the continued imposition of a series of sanctions on Russia, ” Shock”. Announced that the country would not join Western financial and economic sanctions against Russia.

balance of necessity

As U.S. and Russia adopt anti-Moscow sanctions packageEuropean Union Georgia has made it clear that it abides by all international restrictions to avoid being affected by them, but will not impose special restrictions on Russia like other countries.

While Tbilisi was trying to “take the big stick from the middle” and keep an equal distance between Moscow and the West, Georgian intelligence services announced the unveiling of “a group of conspirators who planned to organize large-scale riots in the country with the aim of overthrowing Russia”. The country’s current regime” turned its attention to internal events in the country. A Soviet republic and an important country in the South Caucasus.

According to the Georgian intelligence agency, the “cabal” plans to establish a tent city in the center of Tbilisi, erect roadblocks and close government buildings, and then detonate bombs in the tent city, which will cause mass casualties of demonstrators and security personnel as a means of triggering a civil war. prelude.

It is worth noting that Tbilisi confirmed that “the coup attempt was coordinated and funded by foreign countries” and that the “mastermind” was Georgi Lot, the former deputy minister of the interior and current deputy director of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service Kipanidze. .

Some Russian and Georgian observers viewed the talk as an attempt to launch a “Ukrainian scenario” and repeat the 2014 “European Maidan” in Kiev, anticipating the country’s deviation from the Western path and thwarting any move that, according to the description, could lead to its secession. America’s “House of Obedience.” some of them.

political realism

According to Alexander Yudin, an analyst on Caucasus affairs, Georgia’s integration into Europe is not expected to suffer further delays for a long time, and the possibility of the republic abandoning the Euro-Atlantic path is no longer impossible in the foreseeable future. , especially given the growing rapprochement with Russia, even if it remains…limited to economic documents.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Yudin added that he did not rule out that Western countries would try to destabilize the social and political situation in Georgia to prevent such rapprochement, including with China.

He explained that in addition to Russian, Azerbaijani and Turkmen gas, indicators of political movements in Georgia show a focus on regional cooperation given the development of China’s “Silk Road” and the Turkish gas hub located there. , which will enhance Georgia’s role as a transit country for transporting goods and energy supplies.

Eugene believes that Russia will welcome any reasonable steps taken by Georgia that are in line with its national interests, noting that foreign policy independence is Moscow’s appeal to countries around the world.

In turn, Georgian affairs expert Levan Mamaradze told Al Jazeera that the Georgian leadership has consistently angered Ukraine and the West, whether by refusing to transfer arms to Kiev or engaging in sanctions against Russia and “another front” against Moscow.

He went on to say that while Ukraine does not have the means to pressure Georgia, Western countries have used a wide range of tools, and the United States imposed sanctions on Georgia this spring for the first time in the history of bilateral relations. For some Georgian citizens, including former Prosecutor General Otar Patshaladze, Tbilisi became a pilgrimage site for many Western delegations seeking to persuade Georgian authorities to stop dealing with Moscow.

Although Tbilisi and Moscow are unlikely to form an alliance in the foreseeable future, the two sides will continue to develop a “pragmatic” relationship.

At the same time, political analyst Mamaradze stressed that a disappointing situation has begun to unfold in Georgia due to Georgia’s delays not only in joining the EU, but even in discussing the document, which Western estimates suggest is at best Not before 2030.

It is worth noting that despite the growing trade and economic relations between Russia and Georgia, and the recent opening of direct flights between the two countries, there are currently no discussions about the restoration of diplomatic relations or even the establishment of a trade mission , while Switzerland continues to look after the interests between the two countries.