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David Hirst: This is how Hamas’ policy lures Israel into a deadly trap

British writer David Hirst said that the Islamic resistance movement (agitation) Israel A true regional war – on all fronts – will not end easily.

In a report published on the Middle East Eye website, Hirst explained that one of the most important questions about the Al-Aqsa flood attack launched by Hamas on October 7 last year – which remains unanswered to this day – is: What does Hamas think will happen by attacking Israel in this way?

He also said that some people answered this question about the first phase after the attack with chaos theory, and this answer was correct at the beginning because the following is what happened: the operation was limited to striking Israeli military targets and taking high-value hostages, but things got out of control due to the collapse of the brigade. Gaza Hamas expected that most of the 1,400 members it sent across the fence that day would be killed, but most of them came back alive.But as the war dragged on for months, confidence in the effectiveness of “chaos theory” gradually declined.

Smoke billows from an Israeli military post during mortar and rocket attacks near Kibbutz Menara in northern Israel May 28, 2006. The Israeli army ordered residents living in the northern region to go to bomb shelters after clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli soldiers near Kibbutz Menara. Israeli security sources said rockets hit northern Israel. Israeli jets attacked Syrian-backed Palestinian and Lebanese guerrillas in Lebanon on Sunday, sparking a gun battle along the volatile border hours after rockets were fired into northern Israel, wounding an Israeli soldier. Israel out REUTERS/Dror Artzi
A military base in northern Israel after a Hezbollah attack. (Reuters)

They didn't follow her at first.

Hearst noted that Hamas's allies did not immediately follow suit. Lebanon (Hezbollah) and in Iraq andSyria andYemen andIran We are pleased to respond to the call of the military commander of the Qassam Brigades of the Hamas armed wing Mohammed Al-Dif Join Hamas in the fight against Israel. The author quotes statements by the leaders of Hezbollah and the leaders of the Iranian revolution Ali Khamenei The war, they said, was “100 percent Palestinian in both decision and conduct.”

By mid-November, Hamas’ strategy to wage a regional war appeared to have begun to unravel, but as Israel preemptively attacked more and more Hezbollah targets, the Lebanese group responded in kind, moving into Hezbollah’s .. Houthi armed forces Yemen on the front line, attacks on ships Red Sea.

The turning point came in April, when Israel attacked the Iranian embassy compound. Damascus Iran responded by launching a massive attack directly against Israeli targets, striking military bases.

Hurst said the “red line” for a regional war had been crossed and from then on it was only a matter of time.

He stressed that it is now clear that after October 7, all Hamas has to do is wait, continue fighting and let Israel, which is naturally aggressive and arrogant towards its neighbors, do the work on its behalf.

plan

The British writer says that Hamas's strategy succeeded and wonders: But is this the strategy the movement actually developed? Based on the statement of the Hamas leader in Gaza, he answers yes Yahya Sinwar In a statement in 2022, he said, “The escalation of all forms of resistance, whoever wants it, and making the occupiers pay for the occupation and settlements, is the only way to save our people and achieve the goal of liberation and return. If you don't take the initiative today, you will regret it tomorrow. Whoever takes the initiative will get the credit and prove that he is honest. Don't let anyone take you back to the internal disputes, confrontations and fights in Arenas. We don't have time. And the threat of fascism hangs over us.”

Hirst reports that Sinwar also gave a speech a few months later in which he accurately predicted the future, saying: “In a few months, no more than a year by my own estimate, we will put the occupation before one of two options: either we force it to apply international law and respect international resolutions, that is, to withdraw Bank of the West andJerusalemdismantle settlements, release prisoners and allow refugees to return … or place this occupation in a state that is contrary to the entire international will, which would isolate it in a powerful and massive way and put an end to its integrated status in the region and in the world at large.”

That's exactly what happened

Hurst confirmed that this is exactly what is happening, as Israel becomes more isolated internationally than ever before and is now in the dock at two of the highest international courts, where its main supporters are fighting (USA andU.K.) A defensive war to try to prevent an escalation of international sanctions.

The author mentioned that the partial reform of the sectarian dispute between Shia and Sunni after the Al-Aqsa flood brought a major shift in the regional landscape, drawing attention to the fact that Israel has been prospering through its policies. Israel pursues the idea of ​​”divide and rule”, knowing that if Sunni and Shia forces converge, Israel's ability to maneuver will be limited. This is happening now, and it has real consequences.

He said if Israel succumbed to pressure from the U.S. President Joe Biden andUnited Nations If the Gaza war is ended without disbanding Hamas, it will suffer a tactical defeat and disintegrate the right-wing coalition. But if Hamas continues to wage war in Gaza despite casualties, it will lead to a regional war that the United States is powerless to contain or prevent.

Hirst: Everything that has happened until today was planned by Sinvar (Anatolia)

Israel account completely changed

This is the path Israel is currently setting for itself, the author adds. Even if Hamas and Israel reach a ceasefire, Israel now fully realizes that it will be a temporary respite, a chance for army reservists to recover before the inevitable attack in Lebanon.

The author goes on to say that Palestinians in Gaza have suffered greatly over the past nine months. Starvation is more brutal than indiscriminate bombing. The cost of this strategy is high. But under an increasingly brutal occupation whose sole purpose is to force as many Palestinians out as possible, the armed resistance has become an armed resistance group that refuses to surrender or mass exile Palestinians, wherever they are. This represents a permanent change in Israel's calculations that have subjugated the Palestinian people and the region for decades.

Hirst concluded the article by saying that no matter what happens now, the strategy adopted by Hamas is more effective than we thought nine months ago. Now, Israel faces a real war on all fronts, a war that is not easy to stop.


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