Diplomacy: Region increasingly hostile to US, collapse looms

An article in the American “Foreign Affairs” magazine concluded that attacks by the Islamic resistance movement (agitation) launched “the most serious challenge to U.S. regional strategy since the outbreak of the Middle East war” against Israel on the 7th of last month. arab spring revolutions The civil war that began in 2011 shocked some Arab countries.

The article’s authors, Jennifer Kavanagh, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and her colleague Frederic Verry said that Israel’s aggression against… Gaza Strip The massive casualties sparked widespread anti-American sentiment across the region and prompted “Iranian proxies” to launch attacks on U.S. military personnel in Iraq and Syria.

Two authors believe the US president will tame the way… Joe Biden His management of Israel’s operations, as well as the broader geopolitical implications of the war, will have profound consequences for regional stability and Washington’s ability to confront and deter adversaries in the region and elsewhere.

But the author believes that although the risk remains high, this is obvious from the influx of additional US military forces to the region over the past month, including aircraft carriers, fighter jets and more than 1,000 troops. Deploying additional air defense systems in Arab countries, which the article describes as partners of the United States.

As the author puts it, these moves are aimed at U.S. determination to thwart Iran’s attempts to use its “network of agents” to escalate the crisis, e.g. Hezbollah On the Lebanese side, it launched attacks on Israel from Lebanon, Syria and other regions.

The conflict intensifies

But by expanding its military presence in the region, Washington could inflame regional tensions, risk miscalculation and its attendant costs, and thereby inadvertently foment the very conflict it is trying to avoid.

Washington’s introduction of military equipment and personnel could lead to it eventually slipping into an “open-ended” security commitment to a region that until recently it had tried to “extricate itself from.”

The “security first” approach adopted by the United States in the region after withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and ending combat operations in Iraq in 2021 has proven to be costly in terms of money and lives, and also dealt a devastating blow to the region. As Kavanagh and Weary argue in their joint article, it led to years of war, rebellion, and economic devastation.

Gaps elsewhere

As the U.S. presence intensifies again, its extensive military involvement in the region is likely to continue beyond the end of the current crisis, which could lead to expansion that, in the long term, will have consequences elsewhere, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. gap area. .

Given these risks, Washington’s policy toward the region urgently needs to correct its course, as the researchers suggest, “which was true before last year’s attacks on October 7 and even more so now than before.”

The author goes on to say that President Joe Biden’s administration has not hinted at any short- or long-term amendments aimed at addressing the failures and risks of the current strategy. Instead, it recommitted a “tough” security approach based on unprecedented U.S. military deployments and the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states as the basis for a new U.S.-led security bloc in the region.

Invest in building partner capabilities

The article recommends that the U.S. government invest in building the capacity and flexibility of regional partners so that they can cooperate more effectively, maintain stability, and respond to security challenges with less U.S. support.

The article stated that only this two-pronged approach can promote Washington to establish a “balanced” policy in the region and avoid overexpansion, but it must appease partners and avoid future disasters.

The author mentions three major risks that the Biden administration must acknowledge and respond to, summarized as escalation, reaction, and expansion.

Washington has long relied on providing security and military assistance as the centerpiece of its engagement in the region.

But the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the wave of hostility to the United States sweeping the Arab world, and real differences between Arab governments and Washington over prosecuting Israeli aggression were all factors the two researchers took into account in their study. This danger threatens to erode the foundations of security cooperation between the United States and the Arab world, especially as the U.S. military presence in the region becomes more visible and contested.

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