Gaza War and the Changing Political Landscape Policy

As the war phase in the Gaza Strip escalates, the assessment of the situation and the balance of power changes every day. The positions of the countries concerned vary with developments on the ground and trends in public opinion, making the assessment of political positions a new process that requires constant review.

But there are some characteristics that have not changed throughout the entire war. It can be said that the resistance army has always maintained the initiative, always had the upper hand in the ground war and was in an advantageous position.

Another feature that has not changed is the existence of two separate tracks of this war, one of which is the ground war between the resistance and the Zionist army, and the second is the track of the humanitarian war of genocide waged by the occupation forces against the Zionist army against the civilian population. These are two parallel wars, and the war of genocide is an independent crime that has nothing to do with the war waged by Israel against the resistance and does not achieve any of its goals.

This crime against humanity has aroused the global conscience and has also led to an increase in public opinion sympathizing with the resistance movement, the Palestinian people and the Palestinian cause. This situation has remained unchanged for nine months since the 7th. October/ October 2023.

The most notable variable is how positions change from one day to the next. In the first week of July, for example, talk of continuing negotiations between the United States, Egypt and Qatar to move forward on a shaky armistice came to a halt.

A week or more before this, the United States withdrew from the armistice project signed by several countries, accusing Hamas of being solely responsible for the failure of the agreement and absolving Netanyahu of any responsibility, claiming that he had agreed to it.

Ironically, Hamas publicly and formally approved the draft agreement, while Netanyahu demanded impossible changes to it and quietly withdrew from it under the pretext of his reservations about the changes, without ever announcing his agreement to the agreement at any point.

The withdrawal of its projects by the United States means that Netanyahu is no longer subject to any American or European pressure that would prevent him from – even partially – abandoning his firm decision to continue the war to the end. And holding Hamas responsible for the continuation of this war. In this way, Netanyahu gets two good things: one is that there is no more pressure on him to stop the war, and the other is that he is exempted from any responsibility for continuing the war, which is his ultimate goal. While Biden is preoccupied with his defeat in the debate with Trump, the Zionist army, under the direct orders of Netanyahu, has a free hand in carrying out a war of extermination against the people and the population, with the focus on extending the famine and preventing the entry of aid to a minimum.

But the stunning irony is that the resistance movement was able to escalate its actions, inflicting heavy losses on the Zionist army, including officers, soldiers, tanks and equipment, just as it came back stronger than it had been nine months earlier.

Netanyahu is not too focused on counting his losses on the battlefield, either in Gaza or on the Lebanese border, or due to the naval blockade imposed on him by the Houthis. His priority is to remain in power. Fearing that he will be sent to prison after the war, the most important thing he is keen to achieve is to maintain a four-vote majority in parliament to remain in power, and this is what the alliance with Ben Gvir and Smotrich ensures for him.

All the developments that have taken place since the beginning of this war have been unfavorable to the Zionist entity and its army, which has paid a heavy price, both in Gaza and in other areas of support for resistance. Its political and moral credibility is being eroded worldwide, as it battles for public opinion both internally and externally.

A few months of losses would have been enough to make a decision to stop the aggression and acknowledge (even if implicitly) defeat, but this did not happen because of calculations that had nothing to do with war, nor with the principles of conflict management, but with satisfying vanity, the desire for revenge, and the fear of the consequences of declaring defeat.

Before the end of the first week July/In July 2024, the Hamas leadership reached an agreement with the leadership of other resistance factions in Gaza to put forward new proposals to break the deadlock in armistice negotiations, a move that immediately changed the situation in the political movement, which had entered a suffocation stage.

Most importantly, it confuses the Americans, who were trying to throw the ball back to Hamas and hold Hamas accountable for the failure of the negotiations, and Netanyahu was reassured by that, but it throws the ball back to them and confuses Netanyahu to hold them accountable for their actions and decisions.

The leadership of the resistance movement in the Gaza Strip showed remarkable skill in handling political conflicts, just as it did in the field of ground warfare, turning it into a network of traps surrounding the Zionist army wherever it went. It is not an exaggeration to say that their intelligence and offensive and defensive combat tactics added a new chapter to the science of asymmetric warfare and urban warfare.

So, one word from Hamas and the resistance leaders, and in less than 24 hours, the international situation has changed, and everyone's eyes turn to the Doha negotiations, waiting for the response from Netanyahu and those behind him, and then the equation will change. Again, negative or positive. This day-to-day change is a theme we have seen repeatedly during the nine-month war in Gaza.

The last point is that if we look closely at the state of the leadership of the United States, the Zionist entity and the entire Western world, we see that they are heading towards further decline and decay day by day. On the contrary, if we look at the leadership of the resistance movement and the level of its soldiers, we see that it is heading towards growth and prosperity.

We are dealing with a child who is growing and maturing in some respects, and an old man who is declining… This alone offers a door of hope.

The views expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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