Ranking each NFL team’s 2023 schedule based on opposing QBs: A tough road for Tua, Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos each have six 2023 games against opponents with Tier 1 quarterbacks.
The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints have zero games against top-tier QBs.
These and other extreme differences come into focus below in my annual look at all 32 teams’ schedules of opposing quarterbacks.
Plugging 2023 Quarterback Tiers results into the 2023 NFL schedule allows for a team-by-team look into dynamics. I’ve gone deeper this year than in the past, parsing out every team’s opposing quarterback schedule strength by various categories: division opponents, intra- and inter-conference opponents and more, including each team’s 17th opponent.
The 50 NFL execs and coaches who voted in QB Tiers considered only veteran starters, so I slotted rookies Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson into the top of Tier 4, ahead of Arizona’s Colt McCoy, who will start as long as Kyler Murray remains sidelined by an ACL rehab.
We begin with the Dolphins, who play the toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks, and finish with the Saints, who play the easiest QB schedule. Each team’s breakdown expands by touch or click, allowing for detailed study.
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The Dolphins from 2019-22 never played a schedule of opposing quarterbacks ranked higher than 18th. That changes this season with Aaron Rodgers joining the AFC East and with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson also appearing on the schedule.
The Dolphins face six top-tier quarterbacks, tied for most in the league with Las Vegas, New England and Denver. Miami’s nine games against Tier 1-2 quarterbacks are also tied for most in the league (Cincinnati, San Francisco).
Division (1.93):
5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, M. Jones)
Intra-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
Inter-conference (2.77):
13th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
17th Opponent (4.00):
T-27th of 32 (Young)
2nd-Place Intra (2.55):
T-3rd of 8 (Jackson, Tannehill)
The Patriots played the NFL’s easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks in 2019, but the degree of difficulty has gotten harder every year since. Josh Allen’s rise in the AFC East accounts for some of the difference.
Rodgers’ arrival in the division is a big part of the challenge in 2023. New England also plays the toughest intra-conference schedule, which reflects Mahomes and Herbert appearing on the schedule.
Division (1.81):
4th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa)
Intra-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
Inter-conference (2.77):
13th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
17th Opponent (2.64):
13th of 32 (Carr)
3rd-Place Intra (3.76):
T-7th of 8 (Pickett, Richardson)
The Chiefs again play one of the toughest schedules of opposing quarterbacks even though Russell Wilson plummeted into Tier 3. Kansas City draws rematches against Allen and Burrow, whose teams accounted for two of the Chiefs’ three defeats last season. The Chiefs also have dates with Rodgers, Hurts and Lawrence.
Kansas City plays one game against a Tier 4 quarterback (Love), tied with the Chargers for the lowest total.
Division (2.40):
10th of 32 (Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
Intra-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
Inter-conference (3.07):
T-17th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
17th Opponent (1.84):
6th of 32 (Hurts)
1st-Place Intra (1.62):
T-3rd of 8 (Burrow, Lawrence)
From 2019-22, the Bills’ schedule of opposing quarterbacks ranked 28th on average, easiest in the NFL.
Times have changed.
The Bills face Mahomes and Herbert as part of the scheduling rotation pitting East against West in the AFC. They draw Burrow and Lawrence because the AFC rotation pits first-place teams from the East against first-place teams from the North and South.
Division (2.52):
12th of 32 (Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
Intra-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
Inter-conference (2.77):
13th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
17th Opponent (3.98):
T-25th of 32 (Mayfield)
1st-Place Intra (1.62):
T-3rd of 8 (Burrow, Lawrence)
This is the third successive season the Chargers’ schedule of opposing quarterbacks has become tougher. Facing the AFC East with Rodgers’ addition to the Jets is one reason. The Chargers also play just one game against a Tier 4 quarterback (Love). That is eight fewer Tier 4 quarterbacks than Jacksonville, Atlanta and New Orleans are each scheduled to face.
Division (2.26):
7th of 32 (Mahomes, Wilson, Garoppolo)
Intra-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
Inter-conference (3.07):
T-17th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
17th Opponent (2.24):
9th of 32 (Prescott)
2nd-Place Intra (2.55):
T-3rd of 8 (Jackson, Tannehill)
The top eight teams on this list are from the AFC East or AFC West. That includes the Raiders, who get their usual four games against Mahomes and Herbert, plus games against Allen and Rodgers.
The Raiders’ six games against Tier 1 quarterbacks rank tied for most in the league with the Dolphins, Patriots and Broncos. Las Vegas plays just one game against a Tier 2 quarterback (Kirk Cousins). That is tied with Minnesota for fewest in the league.
Division (1.75):
1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson)
Intra-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
Inter-conference (3.07):
T-17th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
17th Opponent (2.98):
18th of 32 (D. Jones)
3rd-Place Intra (3.76):
T-7th of 8 (Pickett, Richardson)
This is the third successive season Denver has faced one of the eight toughest schedules of opposing quarterbacks.
Denver’s six games against Tier 1 quarterbacks, which is tied for most in the league, will feel even tougher if Cleveland’s Watson regains the top-tier form he showed before missing most of the past two seasons.
Division (1.79):
3rd of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Garoppolo)
Intra-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
Inter-conference (3.07):
T-17th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
17th Opponent (4.02):
30th of 32 (Howell)
4th-Place Intra (3.18):
T-7th of 8 (Watson, Stroud)
The Jets play the eighth-toughest opposing quarterback schedule this year, a big change from recent years. Their schedule was 17th entering last season and among the three easiest in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
In addition to facing the tougher AFC East, the Jets’ fourth-place schedule netted them a game against the Browns’ Watson after Cleveland finished fourth in the AFC North. The Jets also face Hurts and Prescott thanks to a rotation matching the East divisions.
Division (2.43):
11th of 32 (Allen, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
Intra-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
Inter-conference (2.77):
13th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
17th Opponent (4.08):
31st of 32 (Ridder)
4th-Place Intra (3.18):
T-3rd of 8 (Watson, Stroud)
The Commanders played the second-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season, so this is a big jump in competition. The 2023 rotation delivers games against Allen and Rodgers. Hurts’ ascension in the division also makes Washington’s schedule appear tougher. Matthew Stafford’s health is one variable to monitor, as Washington faces him relatively late in the season (Week 15).
Division (2.35):
9th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones)
Intra-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
Inter-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones
17th Opponent (2.82):
15th of 32 (Wilson)
4th-Place Intra (3.60):
T-5th of 8 (Fields, Ridder)
The first-place scheduling rotation delivers the toughest possible combination for the Bengals: games against Mahomes and Allen. The AFC North division schedule could be underrated as Watson and Pickett could plausibly outplay their ratings. Watson was a top-tier quarterback previously. Pickett appears to be rising.
Division (2.61):
13th of 32 (Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
Intra-conference (3.35):
T-25th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
Inter-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
17th Opponent (2.50):
12th of 32 (Cousins)
1st-Place Intra (1.06):
T-1st of 8 (Mahomes, Allen)
The Browns’ fourth-place finish in the AFC North last season matched them with the fourth-place team from the AFC East, which normally would be a welcome development, except the fourth-place team from the AFC East was the Jets, who added a top-tier quarterback in Rodgers.
Division (2.16):
6th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Pickett)
Intra-conference (3.35):
T-25th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
Inter-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
17th Opponent (3.12):
20th of 32 (Fields)
4th-Place Intra (2.11):
T-1st of 8 (Rodgers, Wilson)
The Ravens’ second-place finish in the AFC North assured Baltimore would be matched with a top-tier quarterback in Herbert, plus the Dolphins’ Tagovailoa, who tossed six touchdown passes against the Ravens in a game last season. The game against Miami is not until Week 17, however, and Tagovailoa has so far struggled to stay healthy for a full season.
Division (2.30):
8th of 32 (Burrow, Watson, Pickett)
Intra-conference (3.35):
T-25th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
Inter-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
17th Opponent (2.66):
14th (Goff)
2nd-Place Intra (2.16):
T-1st of 8 (Herbert, Tagovailoa)
Only the Raiders face a more difficult division schedule of opposing quarterbacks than the Steelers are scheduled to face. It’s not all bad for Pittsburgh. Drawing the AFC South and NFC West in the rotation, plus a lower-rated 17th opponent in the Packers’ Love, helped even things out.
Division (1.77):
2nd of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson)
Intra-conference (3.35):
T-25th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
Inter-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
17th Opponent (3.98):
T-25th (Love)
3rd-Place Intra (3.11):
T-3rd (Garoppolo, M. Jones)
The Cowboys’ schedule derives its difficulty from inter-conference matchups with the AFC East, and from drawing its 17th opponent from the AFC West, which means a game against Herbert. The game against Herbert carries additional appeal after former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore took the same job with the Chargers.
Division (2.95):
17th of 32 (Hurts, D. Jones, Howell)
Intra-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
Inter-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones
17th Opponent (1.42):
5th of 32 (Herbert)
2nd-Place Intra (3.33):
T-7th of 8 (Goff, Young)
Drawing the AFC West in the inter-conference rotation accounts for both of the Giants’ games against Tier 1 quarterbacks (Allen, Rodgers). This is a balanced schedule otherwise with five games against quarterbacks in each of Tiers 2, 3 and 4.
Offseason quarterback movement affected the Giants only in small ways. They were going to face Rodgers this season whether or not the quarterback remained with Green Bay or landed with the Jets, as both opponents were on the schedule regardless. Carr’s move from Las Vegas to New Orleans means the Giants will face him as a Saint instead of as a Raider.
Division (2.70):
14th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, Howell)
Intra-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
Inter-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones)
17th Opponent (2.96):
17th (Garoppolo)
3rd-Place Intra (3.31):
T-5th of 8 (Carr, Love)
Philly gets a Super Bowl rematch against Mahomes because NFC East teams drew their 17th opponents from the AFC West, according to order of finish last season.
The Eagles face Mahomes and Allen in consecutive weeks (11 and 12). Their only other game against a top-tier quarterback is against Rodgers in Week 6.
Division (3.08):
19th of 32 (Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
Intra-conference (3.33):
T-21st of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
Inter-conference (2.17):
T-5th of 32 (Allen, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, M. Jones
17th Opponent (1.00):
1st of 32 (Mahomes)
1st-Place Intra (3.24):
T-7th of 8 (Cousins, Mayfield)
The 49ers’ schedule of opposing quarterbacks ranks 17th after ranking no lower than eighth entering the previous four seasons. A couple of factors have improved the outlook. The NFC West has lesser quarterbacks, for one. Tom Brady’s retirement was another factor, as the 49ers’ first-place schedule now includes a Tampa Bay team featuring Baker Mayfield.
Division (3.27):
24th of 32 (Stafford, Smith, McCoy)
Intra-conference (2.77):
T-13th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
Inter-conference (2.21):
12th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
17th Opponent:
8th (Lawrence)
1st-Place Intra:
3.24, 8th of 8 (Cousins, Mayfield)
The Packers and their NFC North rivals experience the best and worst of what the respective conferences can offer: games against the NFC South and AFC West. Green Bay’s eight games against Tier 3 quarterbacks ranks second to the Chargers’ nine.
Division (2.76):
15th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Fields)
Intra-conference (3.68):
T-30th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
Inter-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
17th Opponent (3.52):
24th (Pickett)
3rd-Place Intra (2.64):
T-1st of 8 (Stafford, D. Jones)
The big question surrounding Arizona involves its own quarterback. How many of these games will feature Kyler Murray in the Cardinals’ lineup? Without Murray, who slotted atop Tier 3 this year, Arizona could have the lowest-rated quarterback in every game it plays.
Division (2.94):
16th of 32 (Stafford, Smith, Purdy)
Intra-conference:
2.77, T-13th (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
Inter-conference:
2.21, 12th (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
17th Opponent (4.00):
T-27th of 32 (Stroud)
4th-Place Intra (3.60):
T-5th of 8 (Fields, Ridder)
Finishing first in the NFC North last season landed Burrow and Hurts on the Vikings’ schedule, but with Rodgers leaving the division, Minnesota is in line for two games against Love instead.
Bigger picture, Minnesota has gone from playing one of the three hardest quarterback schedules from 2019-21 to playing the 23rd- and 20th-hardest over the past two seasons, respectively.
Division (3.25):
23rd of 32 (Goff, Fields, Love)
Intra-conference (3.68):
T-30th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
Inter-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
17th Opponent (1.02):
2nd of 32 (Burrow)
1st-Place Intra (2.67):
T-5th of 8 (Hurts, Purdy)
The Lions will surely welcome two games against the Packers’ Love at the expense of facing Rodgers. They can’t complain about Carr’s addition to the Saints, given what else awaits in their run through the NFC South. Drawing their 17th opponent from the AFC North means Baltimore’s Jackson is on the schedule.
Division (3.20):
22nd of 32 (Cousins, Fields, Love)
Intra-conference (3.68):
T-30th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
Inter-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
17th Opponent (1.94):
7th of 32 (Jackson)
2nd-Place Intra (2.62):
T-5th of 8 (Prescott, Smith)
The NFC West isn’t what it used to be, but Stafford enters the season healthy and coming off an impressive training camp, which matters for the Seahawks because they open against the Rams. The AFC North provides Seattle’s toughest quarterback matchups overall.
Division (3.44):
26th of 32 (Stafford, Purdy, McCoy)
Intra-conference:
2.77, T-13th (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
Inter-conference:
2.21, 12th (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
17th Opponent (3.16):
21st of 32 (Tannehill)
2nd-Place Intra (3.33):
T-7th of 8 (Goff, Young)
The scheduling rotation charitably delivers the NFC South to the Colts and their AFC South rivals. Indy’s season ends with games against the inexperienced Ridder, the frequently unavailable Garoppolo and the rookie Stroud.
Division (3.13):
T-20th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud)
Intra-conference (2.21):
T-9th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
Inter-conference (3.68):
T-29th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
17th Opponent (2.32):
10th of 32 (Stafford)
3rd-Place Intra (3.11):
T-3rd of 8 (Garoppolo, M. Jones)
The Texans open the season with Jackson and Richardson, two of the most dynamic running quarterbacks in the league. Houston’s fourth-place schedule assured a matchup with the Jets, which became less welcome once New York acquired Rodgers.
A Week 11 Texans game against Arizona stands out not for the quarterback matchup, but for the potential draft implications. The Cardinals’ own the Texans’ first-round pick in 2023.
Division (3.13):
T-20th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Richardson)
Intra-conference (2.21):
T-9th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
Inter-conference (3.68):
T-29th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
17th Opponent (4.50):
32nd of 32 (McCoy)
4th-Place Intra (2.11):
T-1st of 8 (Rodgers, Wilson)
The Titans entered last season facing the second-toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks. The 23-spot change from last year to No. 25 this year is the NFL’s second-largest year-over-year move in either direction. That should help a Titans defense that ranked among the bottom 10 in passer rating and EPA per pass play allowed.
Division (3.41):
25th of 32 (Lawrence, Stroud, Richardson)
Intra-conference (2.21):
T-9th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
Inter-conference (3.68):
T-29th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
17th Opponent (3.00):
19th of 32 (Smith)
2nd-Place Intra (2.16):
T-1st of 8 (Herbert, Tagovailoa)
The Jaguars’ push to overtake Tennessee in the AFC South late last season means they’ll face Mahomes and Allen instead of Herbert and Tagovailoa. A run through the AFC North also could be challenging, but with the NFC South also on the Jaguars’ schedule, things balance out.
Division (3.72):
31st of 32 (Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
Intra-conference (2.21):
T-9th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
Inter-conference (3.68):
T-29th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
17th Opponent (3.50):
23rd of 32 (Purdy)
1st-Place Intra (1.06):
T-1st of 8 (Mahomes, Allen)
The Bears’ fourth-place finish last season placed Howell and McCoy on the schedule unless Arizona’s Kyler Murray returns in time to replace McCoy for the teams’ scheduled Week 16 game.
Subbing two games against Rodgers for two against Love should help, but Chicago actually played a lower-ranked schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season (30th) than this season (27th). For that, the Bears can thank a 2023 scheduling rotation that features Mahomes, Herbert and the rest of the AFC West.
Division (3.05):
18th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Love)
Intra-conference (3.68):
T-30th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
Inter-conference (2.05):
T-1st of 32 (Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, Garoppolo)
17th Opponent (2.36):
11th of 32 (Watson)
4th-Place Intra (4.26):
T-7th of 8 (Howell, McCoy)
The Rams entered last season with the NFL’s fourth-toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks awaiting them. They face the 28th-toughest schedule this year. The 24-spot change is the largest for any team from last year to this year, in either direction. That could help the Rams outperform low outside expectations.
Division (3.67):
30th of 32 (Smith, Purdy, McCoy)
Intra-conference (2.77):
T-13th of 32 (Hurts, Prescott, D. Jones, Howell)
Inter-conference (2.21):
12th of 32 (Burrow, Jackson, Watson, Pickett)
17th Opponent (4.00):
T-27th of 32 (Richardson)
3rd-Place Intra (3.31):
T-5th of 8 (Carr, Love)
It’s tough to complain about a scheduling rotation that delivers games against all eight teams from the AFC South and from the post-Rodgers NFC North. Allen is the only Tier 1 quarterback on the Bucs’ schedule. However, the Buccaneers’ first-place finish last season placed Allen and Hurts on their schedule.
Division (3.57):
29th of 32 (Carr, Young, Ridder)
Intra-conference (3.07):
T-18th (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
Inter-conference (3.35):
T-25th (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
17th Opponent (1.12):
3rd of 32 (Allen)
1st-Place Intra (2.67):
T-5th of 8 (Hurts, Purdy)
The Panthers and Saints are the only teams without a Tier 1 quarterback on their schedule. Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans each play 14 games against Tier 4 quarterbacks. No other team plays more.
Division (3.57):
28th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Ridder)
Intra-conference (3.07):
T-18th (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
Inter-conference (3.35):
T-25th (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
17th Opponent (2.90):
16th of 32 (Tagovailoa)
2nd-Place Intra (2.62):
T-5th of 8 (Prescott, Smith)
The Falcons haven’t invested much in the quarterback position lately. That might not hurt them much in 2023 because their opponents are weak or unestablished at the position. The only bummer from a Falcons standpoint: Rodgers joining the Jets, who qualified as Atlanta’s 17th opponent.
Division (3.54):
27th of 32 (Carr, Mayfield, Young)
Intra-conference (3.07):
T-18th of 32 (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
Inter-conference (3.35):
T-25th of 32 (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
17th Opponent (1.40):
4th of 32 (Rodgers)
4th-Place Intra (4.26):
T-7th of 8 (Howell, McCoy)
The easiest division schedule and games against all four AFC South teams put New Orleans in prime position to finish with a winning record and a highly rated defense.
Division (4.02):
32nd of 32 (Mayfield, Young, Ridder)
Intra-conference (3.07):
T-18th (Cousins, Goff, Fields, Love)
Inter-conference (3.35):
T-25th (Lawrence, Tannehill, Stroud, Richardson)
17th Opponent (3.26):
T-22nd of 32 (M. Jones)
3rd-Place Intra (2.65):
T-1st of 8 (Stafford, D. Jones)
(Top photo: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
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