The left wins…will Macron ally with the winner or engage in political manipulation? | Policy

Paris- On Sunday evening, after the results of the second and final round of France's early legislative elections were announced, New Popular Front With the first place in the National Assembly and 182 seats, a mixed feeling pervades the French: surprise and relief, but also fear about where the political situation will lead.

Contrary to previous expectations, the results were far below expectations. Right Wing National Rally and his allies, find themselves in the middle of a third political force, with only 143 seats in the National Assembly.

Although the dissolution of the National Assembly caused Macronism to lose the relative majority it enjoyed, the presidential coalition retained 168 seats and prevented the far right from coming to power.

Will the President of the Republic seek it? Emmanuel Macron Alliance with the victorious left, or other plans?

Left dynamic

Although the far right was able to polish its image and demonstrate that it has a solid electoral base representing a third of the French population, this proportion is not enough for other political alliances, either in the European or legislative elections.

After falling to third place in the National Rally and the Left Alliance rising to the top in legislative elections, the New Popular Front presented itself to President Macron as the only option to govern.

In this context, French affairs expert Omar Murabit believes that the political landscape has indeed changed… France Since the president announced the dissolution parliamentHe told Al Jazeera that the victory of the left-wing coalition was one of the scenarios put forward because it was able to unite in a very short time and had the momentum that enabled it to act effectively and show that it was operating according to republican and political principles.

Murabit added that if the left had come, the far right would have been expected to come in second, but the result put the president's camp in second place because it benefited from the so-called Republican Front, as well as the mobilisation that took place within French society as a whole, especially among Muslim and Arab communities.

He added that the Left received the majority of votes from voters in residential areas and major cities, e.g. Paris And Marseille, although the “French heartland” voted for the National Rally, meaning that the votes of the Arab and Muslim communities were the main reason for this unexpected and left-wing coalition victory.

Ziad Majed, professor of political science at the American University of Paris, explains the rise of the left-wing coalition, which surprised everyone who expected the far right to win a relative majority, with reasons including: a younger generation that does not want the far right to be in power, and an alliance “through elections, not politics” between the left and the “Macronists”; both sides retreated to each other when facing the far right in the second round.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Majid explained that this rise is also due to the “successful” political movement of the left, which attracted groups that had been separated from it in the past. But in his opinion, this rise is not enough to easily take power, because the relative majority obtained by the left is still small, so this movement will be forced to have some kind of negotiations with the “Macron faction” on the document that can be agreed upon, or the dispute can be postponed.

Political Strategy

Shortly after the election results were announced, the party leader confirmed:Proud of FranceJean-Luc Melenchon The New Patriotic Party is “ready to govern according to its platform”. He refused to negotiate with the President's party, believing that “components of his program came into being and thwarted the trap set for the country. The United Left has once again saved the Republic in its own way”.

Analyst Al-Murabit believes that the left can take power if it remains united, which means that Mélenchon must adopt a certain flexibility and consensus, since his party won first place in the coalition and may try to impose its candidate. Otherwise, in his opinion, the coalition will be forced to choose a figure from the “Greens” because “proud France” will not accept the representation of the Socialists.

The political expert noted that “Macronism” is over and that even if the second place relatively revives the presidential party, Macron will once again try to maneuver by splitting and disintegrating the left-wing coalition, and he is expected to propose a coalition that excludes the far right and the “Proud France” party.

Competition Trap

Before the first round of elections, officials from the largest coalition party, French Pride, said that if the left-wing coalition won the election, candidates for the Matignon Palace would have to be chosen from the most important parliamentary parties, which raised more questions about “who will the new Popular Front choose later?”

Therefore, French affairs expert Murabit expects problems within the left as a result of the fight for the most important positions, explaining that “Macron will not waste this opportunity and he will try to attract many of them to these positions.” “.

Mathilde Benno, president of the “Proud France” party parliamentary group, pledged to recognize…Palestine As a nation, over the next two weeks.

Earlier, Macron and his Foreign Minister Stephane Segurnet had issued a statement making it clear that this recognition “is not a taboo for France, but Paris believes that the conditions are not yet in place for this decision to have a real impact on the process aimed at establishing two states.”

Therefore, Murabit believes that this issue may be one of the most important differences between Macron's camp and the left-wing coalition in the future, especially since there is a large consensus among the coalition members on the necessity for France to take this step. In this case, you may witness some kind of negotiation.

This photo shows local French media in front of a newsstand after the French legislative elections in Paris on July 8, 2024.
Macron is pictured in French media one day after the legislative elections. (Shutterstock)

3 challenging scenarios

In this political moment, political science professor Ziad Majid talks about several possible options or coalition projects that Macron could take, the most prominent of which are:

  • The first scenario: convince the socialists and perhaps the “Greens” to ally with him, while convincing the traditional right to join the same coalition, whose broad program headings will include many compromises over the coming period, which could last a year or two, until preparations are made for new presidential elections. Here, Macron rules out the “Proud France” party led by Mélenchon, and of course the far-right parties led by Le Pen and Bardella.
  • The second scenario: forming a technocratic government that is apolitical, does not ask for parliamentary confidence, and adopts policies that will not anger any party and cause it to lose confidence.
  • The third scenario: a caretaker government will remain in place until the end of the Olympics, after which Macron will start a new round of discussions and negotiations to plan the characteristics of the next phase and negotiate with the left about the specific form of a government that can be formed.

However, Magid believes that all scenarios involve constitutional difficulties and the difficult possibility of coexistence between Macron and Parliament, which has regained some of the importance it lost when the majority was loyal to the president. “Even if Macron succeeds in building coalitions, these will be temporary, limited and could explode at any time.”

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