US consumer confidence declined in August

The index is erasing early summer gains, as a hot labor market slows and interest rates rise

New York, August 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Conference Board consumer confidence index® decreased in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downward revision of 114.0 in July. the current status indicator– based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased to 144.8 (1985=100) from 153.0. the expectations index– based on consumers’ short-term expectations of income, business and labor market conditions – fell to 80.2 (1985 = 100) in August, mirroring July’s sharp rise to 88.0. Forecasts were higher than 80 hairs, the level that historically indicates a recession over the next year. Although consumer fears of an impending recession continued to recede, we still anticipate a possible recession before the end of the year.

Consumer confidence has fallen August 2023“Erasing the consecutive increases in June and July,” he said. Dana PetersonChief Economist of the Conference Board. “The disappointing headline figures for August reflected declines in both indicators of current conditions and expectations. Written responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with higher prices in general, and grocery and petrol prices in particular. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across the globe. Age Groups – The most popular among consumers whose household income is $100,000 or more, as well as those who receive less $50,000. Confidence has remained relatively stable for consumers with incomes between $50,000 And $99,999“.

Peterson added: “Assessments of the current situation declined in August due to waning optimism working conditionsFewer consumers said jobs were “plentiful” and more consumers said jobs were “hard to come by.” Physical data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to last year, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is trending higher. working conditions August was unchanged from July, but still somewhat lower than it was in June. when asked about Current family financial circumstances (a metric not included in the calculation of the current condition index), the share of respondents who reported “good” conditions decreased, and those who referred to “bad” conditions increased, indicating concerns about present-day family finances.

Forecasts for the next six months fell to near the recessionary threshold of 80 points, reflecting declining confidence in the global economy. future working conditions, Job availabilityAnd income. Consumers may hear more bad news about corporate earnings as jobs narrow and interest rates continue to rise – making expensive goods more expensive. Notably, interest rate expectations jumped in August after falling two months earlier. Equity price expectations also fell and the 12-month average inflation forecast rose. Scale is expected The financial situation of the family, after six months (Not included in expectations index) relaxed more.”

Percentage of consumers saying recession The index fell ‘somewhat’ or ‘very likely’ again in August but remained high at 69.0%. These sprouts likely reflect ongoing uncertainty due to mixing purchase plans. On the basis of the six-month moving average, plans to buy cars and appliances continued to trend upward, but plans to buy homes – more in line with rising interest rates – continued to trend downward. Despite the drop in overall confidence, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, jumped up during the month and was slightly over the top. August 2022 readings, which indicate a continuing tendency to spend on services.”

current situation
Consumer evaluation of the current working conditions It was slightly less positive in August.

• And 20.7% of consumers said business conditions were “good”, unchanged from July.
• And 17.2% said that working conditions were “bad”, compared to 16.2%.

consumer evaluation of the product Labor market deteriorated in August.

• And 40.3% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 43.7% in July.
• And 14.1% of consumers said jobs are “hard to get”, compared to 11.3%.

The forecast is six months hence
Consumers were less optimistic about Forecasts of business conditions in the short term in August.

• And 16.2% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 17.2% in July.
• Meanwhile, 16.8% expect business conditions to worsen, up from 14.5%.

consumer evaluation of the product Short term labor market outlook It was less favorable in August.

• And 16.7% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down slightly from 16.6% in July.
• And 18.0% expect fewer jobs, up from 15.6%.

consumers Short-term Income prospects worsened in August.

• And 16.5% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 17.8% in July.
• And 12.4% expect their income to decrease compared to 9.9%.

consumers’ evaluation of their product The current financial situation of the family It became less positive in August.

consumers’ evaluation of their product The expected financial situation of the family after six months loosened in August.

consumers Probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months It fell in August to the lowest level recorded so far in 2023.

The Monthly Consumer Confidence® Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, experience, and panel of more than 36 million consumers. The deadline for preliminary results was 20 Aug.

source: August 2023 Consumer Confidence Survey^®
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The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index^® in 10 a.m. ET On the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and technical notes for this series are available on the conference board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.

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