Will Macron accept defeat in the parliamentary elections or dissolve parliament again? | Policy

Paris- As the second round of legislative elections is expected to end after the evening of July 7, a new government must be formed on July 7. France 577 new members of Congress were elected.

Three days before the decisive vote results are announced, opinion polls do not expect any of the three main competing political blocs to secure an outright majority in the country. parliamentEven ruling out the possibility of a new absolute or relative majority for the president’s camp, it is unlikely that the left-wing coalition under the New Popular Front will sweep the election results.

The Prime Minister acknowledged in a recent statement to the local media Gabriel Attal That National Assembly It remains the only party capable of an absolute majority. “There is one bloc that can get an absolute majority in the National Assembly and that is the extreme right, not a party,” he said. Proud of France No New Popular FrontNeither do our candidates.Renaissance Party and his allies)”.

Possible coexistence

If the second round results in coexistence, the French president will be forced to Emmanuel Macron The country is ruled by the Prime Minister of the National Unity Party, i.e. Jordan BardellaBut fearing a lack of confidence or his removal through a motion of censure – which if signed by at least a tenth of the National Assembly's members would lead to the government's resignation – Bardella warned against accepting that position unless his party could win an absolute majority either through its deputies or through an alliance with other lawmakers.

In this context, political analyst Yves Centomier explains that at this stage it is unclear whether Macron and the far right will coexist, because if the National Front party fails to form a coalition with the Republicans – which is very likely – this would weaken its authority in parliament.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Sentomir added that the possibility of the National Front gaining an absolute majority is somewhat remote and its success in the second round is not guaranteed, but the most likely scenario today is reaching a split relative majority.

The atmosphere was tense a few days before the second round between the National Unity Party and the presidential camp as its leaders were charged Marine Le Pen President Emmanuel Macron led an “executive coup” on Tuesday with appointments to senior positions in the state to prevent her party from governing with an outright majority.

French affairs expert Le Pen commented that her remarks were “exaggerated”, showing the severity of the current nomination tensions and where the political situation between Macron and Bardella will lead. In his view, attempts to verbally attack opponents are legitimate and expected, just as in previous cases where the Socialist president and the right-wing prime minister coexisted.

Since the general left Charles de Gaulle During the Fifth Republic, which came to power in 1969, there were three exceptions to “coexistence”, when the head of state and his prime minister were not in the same political camp.

This comes after the president's camp suffered a heavy defeat in the legislative elections, leaving representatives elected by the opposition with a majority in parliament. This situation gives the president two options: either resign or choose a prime minister from the new majority.

An unlikely solution

Combined with the uncertainty surrounding the French electorate's vote, a source close to Macron revealed that the head of state “does not rule out” the possibility of adopting a new solution for parliament between June and December 2024 if the far right wins the election.

Political analyst Sen Tomir said that it is certain that they will not be able to dissolve the government and parliament again before a year has passed. Macron may take this step if France's governance freezes. “There is no government that can pass laws or manage the economy. The country, the only solution is to get rid of this situation,” he said. “Anarchy is to dissolve parliament again.”

He continued, “A second scenario that could include a high probability of further resolution is if the National Assembly takes power but within a year, its credibility collapses in the face of difficulties in governing.”

In his view, Macron had the impression that by quickly calling for new elections he was expelling the majority, and “now that he has set himself on fire, he will think twice before resorting again to dissolving Parliament.”

According to article 12 of the Constitution, the President of the Republic, after consultation with the Prime Minister and the head of Parliament, may issue a decision to dissolve the National Assembly. General elections shall be held at least 20 days and at most 40 days after the date of dissolution, and a new dissolution may not be implemented within one year after the elections.

Presidential Powers

Chapter V of the constitution states that the French president “shall take care of the functioning of public power and the continuity of the state” and, to carry out his duties, has “powers of his own, which he may exercise without the need for a signed consent”. As for Article 16, it allows him to declare an exceptional regime, granting special powers in the event of a crisis that threatens state institutions.

While Article 20 states that “the Government is the one who decides and manages the policy of the state,” the President of the Republic can “call a presidential referendum to repeal a law approved by the majority or to declare a new National Assembly after one year.”

While there is the possibility of coexistence with the extreme right, Sentomir points out that, although France is a country where everything revolves around the President of the Republic, who in normal times has the effectiveness of power, in situations of coexistence the center of power is the Prime Minister, and the role of the President is thus reduced to a symbolic, honorary, and active role with political significance.

As for foreign and defense documents, under Article 52 of the Constitution, the head of state can negotiate and approve treaties and has a veto over the appointment of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of the Armed Forces.

French affairs experts point out that there could be some changes to the president's retention of posts in the areas of foreign policy and defense, if, for example, Macron cannot get through with a decision to hand over weapons. Ukraine It is up to the individual, as it is decided by the parliament and proposed by the government, which means that the president does not have absolute freedom even in foreign policy.

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