Will recent diplomatic moves succeed in containing the Sudan crisis? | Policy

Khartoum – As the 15-month anniversary of the outbreak of war in Sudan last April approaches, its humanitarian and security impacts are escalating, with active diplomatic and political campaigns and officials from neighboring countries visiting Sudan. Port Sudan Countries in the region also held meetings for civil and political forces to bring their positions closer to resolving the crisis the country is going through.

In the framework of the political movement to end the war, it organized African Union Its headquarters is located in Addis Ababa (capital of EthiopiaSudanese political and civil forces held a five-day preparatory meeting on Wednesday, four days after a similar meeting in Cairo, marking the first time Sudanese parties have come together since the war broke out, but differences have clouded its final statement.

The Sudanese coalition of democratic civil forces, “Taqadum”, announced today its apology for attending the African Conference for several reasons, the most prominent of which was the insufficient consultation of the invited parties and the reservations about the coalition's section on the conference agenda and the inclusion of elements of the African Union that it considered to be supportive of the continuation of the war.

Source: Transitional Sovereign Council Port Sudan 9 July 2024 A joint discussion meeting between Sudan and Ethiopia began today at the Reception Palace in Port Sudan, with the Sudanese side chaired by the Chairman of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Lieutenant General # Abdel Fattah Burhan. The Ethiopian side was led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Burhan and Abiy Ahmed resolve previous dispute over Ethiopia's statement on Sudan conflict (Sovereign Council)

Ethiopia's position

This is the first visit by an Ethiopian prime minister to the eastern Sudanese city of Port Sudan since the conflict broke out. Abiy AhmedOn Tuesday, closed-door talks were held with the chairman of Sudan's sovereign council Abdel Fattah Burhanto discuss the Sudan crisis and ending the war, and was later joined by ministers and senior officials from the intelligence and military intelligence services.

Sources in the Sovereign Council told Al Jazeera that the two sides have overcome tensions since Abiy Ahmed’s statement in July 2023 about the leadership vacuum in Sudan and his subsequent reception of the Rapid Support Forces commander. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” Celebrated in Addis Ababa.

The same source explained that the Ethiopian Prime Minister is willing to play a role in bringing the positions of Burhan and Hemeti closer to resume peace talks, and the two sides also approved security cooperation and coordination measures to maintain stability on the border between the two countries, especially to prevent the infiltration of armed elements on both sides of the border, especially after the upcoming military confrontation between the army and the army.Fast support From the Ethiopian border.

Abiy Ahmed told his country’s parliament on July 4 that Ethiopia has not taken advantage of Sudan’s ongoing conflict to “recover the lands that the Sudanese army has entered, to take advantage of our war with Sudan.” Tigray Liberation FrontBut morally, we will not take advantage of the war conditions that the Sudanese people are going through, they have stood by us in all difficult times and hosted Ethiopians on their land.”

He stressed that their position on the Sudanese conflict is neutral and expressed support for bringing the conflicting parties to the negotiation table for dialogue and peace and ending the war, just as the Ethiopian Prime Minister had previously mediated between Sudanese civilians and the military following the collapse of the deposed presidential regime. Omar al-BashirHe also actively participated in the peace efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development of East African States.Intergovernmental Authority on Development”.

South Sudan's president is also expected to visit Port Sudan Salva Kiir Mayardit A Sudanese foreign ministry source told Al Jazeera that consultations with Burhan would take place over the next two days.

Revitalizing the Jeddah Platform

Burhan discussed with Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Walid bin Abdul Karim al-Khoulaiji in Port Sudan on Monday the resumption of Jeddah talks to stop the war.

Sudan's Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Awad said the discussion consisted of a call for the restoration of the platform, with Burhan stressing Sudan's eagerness to make it a success, but expressing reservations about restoring it in the context of expanding the scope of its initiators and the presence of any party supporting the fast track.

On December 3, 2023, the Saudi-US mediation at the Jeddah Platform suspended the negotiations after the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Group accused each other of not implementing confidence-building measures and ending the Rapid Support Group's military presence in key cities and civilian facilities.

In Djibouti, IGAD Secretary Volkni Chibiho met with US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hamer, and the two discussed the current situation in the region, focusing on Sudan, and stressed the need to accelerate the peace process.

The United Nations also called on the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces to hold indirect talks in Geneva, Switzerland this weekend to discuss how to facilitate the delivery of aid to those affected by the fighting and protect civilians.

Proxy failure

Political analyst and former Foreign Ministry spokesman Obaid Ahmed Marawa believes that the United States is convinced that “its agents' estimates of the outcome of the war in Sudan are not what they want and that the government Biden “You want the war to be over before the U.S. election next November.”

Although foreign affairs make up only a small part of the attention of American voters, analysts interviewed by Al Jazeera believe that the US government has failed to achieve anything in terms of international peace interests, such as the above-mentioned cases. The governments of Ukraine and Gaza see the project to stop the war in Sudan as an incentive to improve their image and ensure the continued support of African Americans and other pressure groups interested in the Darfur region.

The spokesperson added that major national and regional stakeholders in Sudan hope that the Sudanese conflict will be resolved as soon as possible so that they can focus on other issues and disputes that affect their own and the region's future. Due to the severity of the dispute between Sudanese parties, a final solution is not expected to be reached soon.

At the same time, if international and regional momentum continues, it is not impossible to reach a solution, set a ceasefire date and pass humanitarian aid within the next two months.

Writer and political analyst Khalid Saad believes that recent political movements are driven by the vision of the international and regional community, that Sudan's situation is disastrous and confusing, and that war may end it. The cycle continues, sweeping up international and regional interests.

Al Jazeera analysts said that the purpose of ignoring the war in the early stage was to make both sides of the war exhausted, but conflicts of interest exacerbated the situation, and anxiety began to increase as Khartoum approached Moscow, and security concerns rose. In addition to the Red Sea issue, there are also concerns that extremist groups will take advantage of Sudan's security situation.

The spokesman viewed the Sudanese army meeting in Cairo and the subsequent meeting in Addis Ababa as attempts to bridge the rift between the parties and end the crisis, as ongoing political divisions have prolonged the war.

But he believes the mixed motivations of the conference organizers could complicate a full resolution of the crisis, which would require a more independent will on the part of all parties to reduce the impact of international pressure seeking to stop the war without a radical solution.

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