Experts and analysts believe Israel has begun to diverge politically and militarily from its original war goals Gaza StripIt may have begun paving the way for an exchange of agreements or a suspension of operations after disputes between its security and political establishment reached a disintegrating stage and the military no longer wished to continue fighting.
Occupation Army Radio announced earlier today (Monday) that after the withdrawal of more troops, only three divisions (99-162-96) are now left in Gaza.
“Israel Hayom” newspaper also stated that the withdrawn 36th Division included brigade Golani The 6th Brigade, the 7th Brigade, the 188th Brigade, and the Engineer Corps.
Commenting on the withdrawal, military expert Major General Fayez Duwari said that there were many reasons for the withdrawal, including the fact that some troops such as the Golani Brigade were severely hit by resistance organizations and the third phase of the ground war was entered.
Duhuaili said during an appearance on “Gaza…What's Next?” On January 15, 2024, Israel withdrew most of its forces from northern Gaza to fill battlefield needs in the center and south, but did not achieve any results, which prompted Israel to withdraw new troops for recovery and reconstruction.
Duwari believes that the withdrawn troops will be in a state of combat readiness after being qualified, noting that pushing them to other areas means that the war continues and will not stop. But if they are still on a war footing, vigilant in a covered area, this could be a sign that consideration is being given to stopping the fight one way or another.
back off target
In this context, political analyst Dr. Bilal Shubachi said that the Israeli Defense Minister’s speech Yoav Galante – Today, Monday – Regarding continuing to fight until victory is achieved, “this is natural, because he does not want to take back what he said before, when he spoke of many achievements and he reiterated that the rehabilitation of prisoners will only be by force achieved.”
However, new speeches from Israeli officials have begun to ignore discussions about eradicating the phenomenon. islamic resistance movement In Shubaki's view, (Hamas) signaled an implicit retreat from their original goals, and they wanted to save face for the war council, especially Golant.
“These conversations mean that Israeli military leaders are aware of the difficulty of eliminating an entire movement, but that it is possible to carry out targeted strikes against it,” Shubaki explained.
Shubaki believes that this new talk from Israel is “consistent with changes in U.S. talk about the possibility of coexisting with the movement and reducing its offensive capabilities,” describing the matter as “in one way or another Formal surrender”.
In Gaza, on the other hand, author and political analyst Ayman Rafati said residents expect a prisoner exchange deal soon and perhaps a truce or temporary halt to the war, especially as Israeli troops continue to withdraw and divisions grow between institutions.
Rafati believes the withdrawal may have been a response to the resistance's condition to cease aggression before negotiating prisoners, and also reflected the military's support for a quid pro quo to distance itself from the resistance. accusations.
Rafati added that “the exchange of documents contains information about new proposals that have attracted the attention of the opposition, with US President Joe Biden talking about his vigorous efforts to rescue prisoners and the tense military situation on the ground. It matches.”
Israel has gone from chaos to division
Regarding the growing discussion in Israel about the need to stop the war and exchange prisoners, Shubachi said some ministers initially expressed concerns about the war, but they did not announce those concerns for fear of being accused of being unpatriotic, noting that they These concerns began to be announced recently because “what is happening now poses a danger to Israel.”
Shubaki believes there are divisions affecting security agencies and the government, especially the Shin Bet, which submits reports to the prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu It warned him that the situation in the West Bank was deteriorating and that after the failure of the Gaza solution, talk of a security or military solution was no longer possible.
Shubaki explained that the Tel Aviv operation that took place today “means that the policy of eliminating resistance weapons does not mean halting operations in some way, even taking into account security precautions and fear.”
Furthermore, Israel finds itself facing the International Court of Justice on charges of genocide, “which puts Netanyahu in a difficult position because he is the one who one day stands up and tells the world that Israel is an oasis of security, democracy” and investment , and now this picture is collapsing in front of everyone. “Al-Shubaki said.
The speaker concluded that Israel's problems “go beyond chaos and have reached the point of the disintegration of radical institutions within the state.”
Rafati shared the same view, speaking of the Resistance having important pressure cards in the exchange of documents that could give the Resistance the strength to insist on conditions for a cessation of aggression.
In addition, information revealed today, Monday and yesterday about the fate of some prisoners “could force the government to reach a swap deal and overcome the obstacles posed by Netanyahu and Galante, who want to maintain calm rather than block the Fati said he believed the army “doesn't want to continue.” “The war will not keep military prisoners in Gaza, but it will not bring them back either. “
Ultimately, Maj. Gen. Duvali believes that with the military faltering, Netanyahu will give in to demands to stop the war, but he believes that the timing depends on increasing internal pressure on the one hand and the United States on the other. pressure.
He concluded that Washington could press Netanyahu to stop the war if it dropped its timid pressure and started seriously threatening to reduce military supplies.