Israeli expert: Tel Aviv’s choice after Gaza truce is hostage policy in Sinwar’s hands

Occupied Jerusalem—— The options presented to Israel’s political leadership following the end of the temporary truce appear to be controlled by the leaders of the Islamic resistance movement (agitation) exist Gaza Strip Yahya Sanwar He expressed his willingness to extend the ceasefire.

It comes as the Israeli military leadership insists on resuming the war in Gaza and expanding its ground incursion into the south to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities and free detainees.

The options also come amid internal challenges facing the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu This comes amid growing pressure from the families of detainees to continue the prisoner exchange process made possible by the ceasefire, in addition to growing calls in Europe and the United States for the ceasefire as a starting point for an end to the war and towards a political initiative.

mass trauma

Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi realized that the Israeli public’s widespread perception of the continuation of the war in Gaza was the result of the collective trauma caused by the fighting.al aqsa floodsroll out izdin qassam brigade – the military wing of the Hamas movement – regarding the settlements. “Gaza coverThere are also southern Israeli towns on October 7th.

A job posted by the “Israel Institute for National Security Studies” affiliated with the university is most likely to be estimated tel aviv The state of war with Gaza is likely to last for a long time, perhaps for months, depending on the circumstances, with varying degrees of intensity, and with potentially severe disruptions and ebbs and flows in outcomes and damage.

The Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood created a sense of existential threat that created a broad consensus that Israel was fighting a war that had been imposed on it, which was the basis for broad popular support for the war’s goals and support. Israeli army.

However, if a protracted war expands to other fronts or becomes complex, it will pose a major challenge to the affordability of Israeli society, which could weaken public support and lead to a possible erosion of popular support, the Israel Institute said. for the war effort.

It will also affect Israelis’ national mood, which will be affected by the number of soldier casualties and the recovery of Israel’s largest number, said researchers Meir Arlan and Ariel Hyman of the Institute for National Security Studies. Detainees.

Researchers stress that the longer the war continues, the echoes of collective shock that occurred on October 7 will be secondary and military achievements on the ground will become the criterion for sustaining popular support for the continuation of the war in Gaza, and vice versa amid losses and failures. to achieve its goals.

Traps and pressures

Yossi Yehoshua, the military and security correspondent for Novaya Gazeta, believes that Hamas’s evasion of Israel during the truce and at various stages of the exchange agreement reflects Sinwar’s efforts to infiltrate under pressure from the Israeli streets to release the army. A trap set by the military in Gaza. All detainees.

He explained that the Israeli political level and the military’s choice to accept a truce and a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the return of a limited number of abductees does not improve Israel’s deterrence, because this happens precisely after the Israeli army has regained lost territory. It suffered during the “Aqsa Flood”.

The military leadership’s insistence on resuming and expanding the war in Gaza is believed to reflect the general staff’s growing recognition that the ground invasion must go deeper. Rafa Tightening the siege of Hamas there, releasing all detainees at once and threatening to turn Gaza into a large refugee camp.

Eyal Zisser, a researcher on security affairs and Middle East issues at Tel Aviv University, believes that the choice at the political level is to accept the military-level plan and continue to launch battles and ground battles southward, “That is, if Israel hopes to achieve anything that can be achieved in the To militarily and politically undermine the achievements of Hamas’ rule in the Gaza Strip.”

Zisser explained in an article in the Israel Today newspaper that Halevi and government spokespersons announced and promised that when the truce ends, Israeli forces will also continue fighting and ground combat in southern Gaza, and that when this happens When this happens, Hamas’s ability to function as an organized military force will be eliminated and its governance system that controls the Gaza Strip will collapse.

However, given international pressure to extend the truce and complete a new phase of the exchange agreement, Zisser said there were growing concerns about the decision to suspend ground fighting and the possibility of reaching a solution.

He pointed out that some people regard the Gaza War as a “battle for independence and survival” that will determine Israel’s fate and future in the Middle East for the next 75 years.

Application scenarios

It is for this reason that the security and Middle East affairs researcher said that “Israeli forces are prohibited from ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza until the goals of the war have been decided and achieved. Only decisive action in Gaza can guarantee the security of Israel and Israel.” Let it go. Back to the road to throne on the night of October 7th. “First”.

Regarding the choices facing Israel’s political leaders, Sarit Eftian Cohen, a political affairs analyst at the Israel Today newspaper, said that the one-day delay in the repatriation of the second batch of detainees showed that “a strong, sovereign, independent Israel Hostages in the hands of Yahya Sinwar.”

Cohen added, “Although Hamas was severely beaten on the battlefield, it was able to reach an agreement according to its standards, and Israel and its political leaders were forced to agree to every additional demand in order not to lose the opportunity to negotiate.” Children and The women’s safe return and decisions about the course of the war depended on the remaining detainees. “It’s up to Hamas and Sinwar to decide.

Faced with the complications and options of extending the truce or resuming rounds of fighting, as well as challenges with detainee files, Cohen said, “Israel faces international pressure to end the war.”

The political analyst explained that the Israeli army has established a “Legitimacy Group”, headquartered in the Tel Aviv Ministry of Security, with the task of monitoring the level of international legitimacy of Israel in the Gaza War.

She saw that, as the temporary truce began and the swap deal was completed, this legitimacy gradually lost interest in the issue of Israeli detainees, while interest in the total destruction of the Gaza Strip increased, and calls for an end continued to grow. Entering the war out of great sympathy for the Palestinians.

She said Netanyahu’s government lacks any political vision for the future of post-war Gaza and “who will fill the void there after Hamas” and that the international community – including Israel’s friends in Europe and the United States – wants to restore a two-state solution. of negotiations. Therefore, Cohen said, “Hamas’ victory will be complete and will not disintegrate after the war is over, nor will it disappear.”