The coronavirus variant on the horizon is said to represent a major evolutionary leap

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects an updated booster vaccine to be available next month, but it remains to be seen if the new shot will be able to kill a highly mutated variant of the coronavirus that is just beginning to emerge.

Scientists have dubbed it “Pirola” on social media, and the technical name for this new bug is BA.2.86, which makes it a descendant of the Omicron virus that first appeared in late 2021, causing the largest surge in cases of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But the latest variant is said to contain more than 35 additional mutations compared to XBB 1.5, which is the variant that will be included in the boosted version this year, according to Risk. appreciation From the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Experts recommend that people wait for the latest booster dose when it becomes available — although, as with each new annual dose, it remains uncertain how compatible the immunity it induces with the latest coronavirus strains.

Right now, many are building immunity the old-fashioned way, by getting infected. As it has every summer since 2020, the coronavirus has spread widely in San Diego and across the country due to summer travel and large gatherings.

The latest research shows that while the public is clearly determined to make 2023 the first year after COVID-19, the virus continues to evolve at a pace that makes another round of the disease almost certain this fall.

People wear masks as they walk along Harbor Drive in El Cajon in the summer of 2021, as the Delta Variant becomes the most common variant of the coronavirus.

(Nancy E. Lewis/© 2021)

Pyrola was first identified on July 24, more than a month after the US Food and Drug Administration consent XBB 1.5 – widely called “Kraken” – is the only strain included in the booster that will face approval next month. At that time, EG.5, another child of Omicron, began to circulate widely. Recent statements from drug manufacturers indicate that their boosters are highly effective against this version of the virus dubbed “iris”.

However, Eris is not much different from the Kraken. By comparison, Berula is a much bigger leap, with the CDC concluding that “the number of genetic differences (between Berula and Kraken) is about the same magnitude as we saw between the initial Omicron variant and earlier variants such as Delta.”

It is difficult, at the moment, to know how compatible the new booster is with Perula, because it is not yet the dominant strain affecting people in the real world. The CDC’s assessment, published on Wednesday, notes that so far, only nine copies of the subspecies’ genetic sequence have been reported, of which only two are in the United States.

It remains to be seen whether or not Perola will overtake Iris and become the dominant coronavirus on a national or international level.

To date, there is no evidence that Pyrola is widespread in San Diego County.

The latest San Diego coronavirus ratio report, which was updated last week for the first time since June, lists iris as the dominant circulating strain, even though the wastewater samples analyzed for the report were collected on or before August 6. This means that there are weeks of additional viral disruptions in the community that have yet to be accounted for.

Renowned immunologist Shane Crotty of the La Jolla Institute of Immunology, whose work has been pivotal in mapping how the immune system reacts to the pandemic coronavirus, wasn’t too concerned with impeding this particular race when asked for his opinion this week.

“You can look at the available data and see that some variants are more interesting than others because of how many mutations they have and where those mutations are,” Crotty said. “But how much of a problem they’re going to really depend on just watching those case numbers.”

He pointed out that human immune systems have now faced several confrontations, whether through vaccination or infection, with this particular germ, and it is difficult to determine how this complex immunity will play against a highly mutated threat.

“There is somewhat different immunity to different variants, so it can make some people more susceptible to a new strain but other people not more susceptible,” Crotty said.

The FDA’s decision to release Kraken into the vaccine this year, but not include a second viral reference as was the case for last year’s vaccine, makes some a little uncomfortable, especially in light of Birola’s recent reminder of just how much further evolution this virus can go. . pull off.

T said. Ryan Gregory, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Guelph in Ontario and one of the first to put the Perula moniker to BA.2.86 on X, formerly Twitter, said in an email Friday that “targeting one variant probably isn’t right.” Especially look forward because this alternative will be largely gone by the fall.

“It might have been wiser to look at and target mutations and combinations of mutations that are evolving independently in multiple strains,” Gregory said.

But it is not clear whether including a second reference strain in the vaccine would spur the public to action. It certainly didn’t happen in 2022 when the current two-strain booster arrived. Vaccination records show that most people skip vaccinations all together.

according According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while 69% of Americans completed their initial two-dose vaccination series, only 17% got last year’s booster shot. The numbers are a little better California With approximately 73 percent initially vaccinated and 21 percent considered up-and-coming. San Diego County has Finished Even better, an initial vaccination rate of 81 percent was achieved, with 22 percent follow-up with booster doses.

But that’s still less than one in four being boosted, even in a city that’s home to organizations like LJI and the Scripps Institute whose scientists have been intimately involved in tracking the COVID-19 pandemic from the start.

Dr. Robert “Chip” Scully, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Diego.

(Jarrod Valerie/San Diego Union-Tribune)

Low turnout rates indicate that large segments of the population do not see the value in obtaining support. But Dr. Robert “Chip” Scully, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Diego, said that perspective can be shortsighted, especially for those at increased risk of serious complications from COVID-19.

It’s important to remember that natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity wane over time, he said this week, and that a large percentage of the benefit of a booster dose stimulates memory cells in the immune system to produce a new set of protective antibodies and T. Cells capable of hunting down a relatively wide range of related viruses.

Vaccination then stimulates a new set of infection-fighting forces, some of which will be equipped to fight the strain included in the vaccine but also have allies along the lines of other types of coronavirus.

“If you’re in a risk group, you know, being older, you have all the risk factors that we’ve talked about with things like obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, even if you had coronavirus this summer, you really don’t want that.” “Missing the opportunity gives your immune system another chance to manipulate the virus and get immunity a little bit broader and get a little bit stronger,” Sculley said.

After receiving a bivalent booster in the spring and not getting sick this summer, Sculley said he plans to get a new booster this fall.