The somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels put six members of their active roster on explicit concessions: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfrew, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randall Grichuk And Dominic Leon. white sox (Mike Clevenger), mets (Carlos Carrasco) and tigers (Jose CisneroEveryone followed suit, to varying degrees.
In many ways, it goes back to the days of revocable trade waivers in August, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. This led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, in which high-priced, unclaimed veterans were free to transfer them. But this set of circumstances is completely different.
Players who have been waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets, and Tigers are present Irrevocable Explicit concessions. Any team that obtains a claim on one of those players immediately takes the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of those veterans isn’t claimed—it’s likely that a few will—their current team doesn’t have to transfer it directly to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active list and continue playing with them as normal. (The angels are said to have already passed by Tyler Anderson Through outright waivers last week and kept him on the roster after he was unclaimed.) Likewise, it’s pretty clear that these players are free to continue playing. Several of them played last night. Renfrew literally hit home as I was writing this paragraph. Concessions are fun!
The full waiver period is 48 hours, which means we’ll have a decision on everyone from this group sometime tomorrow afternoon (although news about claims granted may be a bit spotty). Forfeit priority is determined based on the reverse order of winning percentage and is no league special. The league’s waiver priority was unique to commercial revocable waivers back in August and is now non-existent. It’s a common misconception that they stay where they are, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that forfeit priority is simply from the worst team to the best team – in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, assignment priority is determined based on the reverse order On the day players clear waiversWhich means we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are over.
This is a complete set of preambles that may or may not be necessary, depending on your prior understanding of the particulars of the waiver. However, a short crash course seemed appropriate, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the huge ramifications it could have with teams in a close tiebreaker race.
It’s fair to assume that non-contenders would waive their pick on any of these players — all free agents and imminent ones — but any club with a glimmer of hope in the postseason can make a claim. Technically that includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best for meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8% respectively, while Baseball Bulletin has the guard at just 1.6% and the Brothers at what looks like 7%. You can never take away the Padres’ big-name players, but they’re already in the tier 3 luxury penalty, so anyone they get is taxed at 75%. That would be a heavy price to pay, but when did baseball operations president AJ Briller and owner Peter Seidler stop that?
We’re writing about the best fit for this trio of outfielders, however, and “the best” doesn’t sound like a team whose playoff hopes are roughly the same as hitting a one-hit down the river in the hands of a Texas catch. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much they’re still owed in their contract, their strengths/flaws, whether they’re likely to be claimed at all, and where they might fit best among the pool of contenders. who will have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays, and Mariners (i.e., the highest level of the MLB standings).
Age: 29 | bat: t | Salary: $4.7 million ($783,000 yet to be paid) | Position: Midfield
Badr is the smallest, cheapest and most likely of this trio. Age and salary play a major role in that, as does his glove. Bader is not only the best defensive player in this group, he is one of the best outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play in any of the three outfield positions, but the defense is so strong that it is almost a waste to have him anywhere other than the position. In 4,243 innings of center court play at the major league level, Bader compiled 43 defensive saves and an above-average 61 points.
For more context, Bader’s 4,243 innings pitched at center field from 2017 to 2023 rank just 96th among all major league players in terms of total innings played at one center. He nonetheless ranks 18th among all major league players in runs saved and 7th in hits above average. In other words, even though the 95 players have a larger sample of innings for accolades in this pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.
Prior to the 2023 season, Bader was a major league hitter in one form or another. From 2018 to 2022, he hit .245/.319/.407 — good for 98 wRC+. By that metric, he was 2% worse than a major league player. For a player with this kind of defensive talent, it made him an all-rounder. However, this year has seen his racket take a step back. Bader hit a career low of 18%, but hit only .239/.275/.365. He walks ever fewer, hits more fly balls than ever before, and sees only 6.5% of those flies converted into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).
One thing Bader does well–and he always does well–is setting fire to his left-handed throwing. He’s a .267/.332/.508 hitter against the Southpaws, but in 2023 he demolished the left-hander with a .348/.389/.697 chop. Sure, it only appeared in 72 paintings, but Bader was nonetheless a giant when he had the platoon advantage.
Any team can improve their defense off the field, but there are still a few competitors who can particularly benefit from this type of glove. The Marlins have been looking for a starting quarterback for years. They finished 29th in the major leagues with -19 DRS and tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Cubs are all rated as below-average defensive units, too. In terms of production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Reds are all grouped tightly together in terms of wRC+ (San Francisco’s 90 ranges to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they are currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst priority surrender in MLB. It is hard to imagine Badr falling to this extent.
The twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and hope to receive Byron Buxton Coming back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox seem to make sense – Boston in particular, next Garen DoranInjury – but both are paths down the waiver standings. Badr could make any team’s competition better – even if he’s just a bench player – but he seems particularly suited to the national team. Marlins or the giants.
Age: 31 | bat: t | Salary: $11.9 million ($1.98 million remaining) | Position: right field
Renfrow’s salary is large enough that he’s not a lock to claim at all — especially since he’s in the middle of a bad year at the plate (despite the aforementioned homer). A well-above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he hit .257/.315/.496, Renfrow found himself hitting .239/.301/.430 over the course of the year — about 3% worse than average. , per WRC+. He’s hitting more homers than he has since his rookie season, has appeared more often than ever before, and has seen his average exit velocity and strikeout rate drop to nearly career-low levels.
Earlier in his career, Renfro was considered an outstanding defensive player, but his sprinting speed and on-field readings have deteriorated over the past few years, according to Statcast. His raw arm strength is still in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice before marking when Renfro is on the receiving end of a fly, but Renfrew’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs it at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives it a mark of -3.
Traditionally, left-handed throwing is penalized by Renfrew. He’s a .261/.342/.523 lifetime hitter against lefties in the major leagues, but this season has seen a dip in production. Almost all of Renfrow’s power has come against right-handed opponents. He bats .250/.304/.356 against left-handers, with a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than he currently bats against right-handed opponents.
Renfroe was brilliant around the league even during his most productive times, moving to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the way the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players who have… OBP concerns. It would now cost the team at least $2 million to rent him for one month, and that may be a price some clubs balk at.
However, Renfrew has some track record and is still a roughly average hitter in 2023. He would be an upgrade from bench batsmen who are rostered even at a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries on the field could certainly see him as a catcher. Potential difference.
While the Marlins could use Bader at center, they are well equipped with cornerback options and have Jorge Soler in dirhams. The Red Sox and Brewers have both traded Renfroe once already. giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) They have relatively similar players. the twins Renfroe could be viewed as a viable upgrade Jordan Lublo or the fighter Joey Galloand the reds Suit Jake Fraley, Joy Photo And Jonathan India on the list of injured. Renfrew can pay Nick Senzel Back to Triple A. If Renfrew gets to Sailorscan be more promotion Dominic Canzone in left field with Jared Kilinick Outside. the Dodgers He can certainly afford to add Renfrew with him JD MartinLouise On the injured list and a slew of left-handed hitting options — if he gets that far.
Age: 32 | Bat: t| Salary: $9.333 million ($1.55 million remaining) | Position: All three positions on the field
Grichuk had a solid season with the Rockies, hitting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat broke after a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the trade, he has hit .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate which is well above the 19.4% mark he hit in Denver.
Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually rates him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he has never been a base-stealing threat and has received inconsistent grades (at best) for his defense all over the field. He’s probably best suited for the corner job at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings at the position this year. He has over 3,000 career innings in both center and right, as well as nearly 1,200 in left, so he’ll at least feel familiar with any slot he plays in the outfield.
While he has long displayed above-average power — a career .216 ISO, a career-high 31 at-bats in 2019, five 20-plus at-bat seasons — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly diminished by his aversion to walking. He caught a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, dropping his lifetime OBP to below .300 (.296).
However, his skill set may be limited, but Grichuk shines in one specific area: the tortured left-handed throwing. He is hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career hitter of .266/.314/.503 in such situations.
Grichuk is slightly less expensive than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may have more appeal. This same group of Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds, and Brewers could all use help against the Southpaws. The Giants are deep in their right-handed defensemen, and the D linebacker has a fam to fill a similar role. the Reds And twins They could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and Brewers It can be seen as a push against leftists who will take some of the pressure off their suffering Tyrone Taylor And the youth Frelick asked.