Israeli analysts warn the war will continue. Who will take us out of Gaza? | Policy

Occupied Jerusalem—— Estimates from Israeli analysts warn of the consequences of continuing the war in Gaza, agreeing that it has failed to achieve its goals, while some analysts say some of the so-called “achievements” could explode and turn into strategic failures if the fighting and war end. The ground battle lasted for a long time.

As the invasion enters its fourth month, observers are even more convinced of the need to complete a comprehensive exchange agreement, given that Israeli forces have failed to rescue even a single “hostage” during ground operations.

Analysts from across the political spectrum and party camps agree that it is impossible to weaken military resistance and end the rule of the Islamic resistance movement.agitation) In the Gaza Strip, there are calls for an end to the war and the start of negotiations on all issues related to the post-war period.

strategic failure

Eyal Alema, a military analyst for the state-run Israeli television channel Kan, agreed with the content of these estimates, noting… Gaza Strip It is now probably at its most sensitive stage regarding its continuation due to a number of fundamental challenges and questions.

Alima told Al Jazeera that the most prominent of these challenges are the course of the fighting and the declared goals of the war that have so far not been achieved, and that the continuation of the fighting shows that the contradiction between the goals has become increasingly serious. What is even clearer is that Israel cannot overcome this contradiction, which means that the goals of the war will not be achieved.

The military analyst quoted U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's statement to his Israeli counterpart Yoav GalanteHe expressed concern about the consequences of the Israeli army's inability to achieve war objectives and maintain military achievements in the field, while Alima warned that these achievements would turn into strategic failures.

He noted that the Israeli government is headed by Benjamin Netanyahu It waged war with stated military objectives, without any plan for the day after the war, and without basing its agenda on any political pillar. “In the absence of political vision, Israel could become trapped in the Gaza Strip,” he said. If it gets stuck in the quagmire, it will be difficult to achieve the goals it pursues. “

For his part, military analyst Akiva Eldar agreed with the consensus estimate of military analysts… tel aviv It did not achieve any of its declared war objectives, and he stressed it was “far from achieving any”.

Eldar reviewed the impact of these estimates to Al Jazeera, saying: “They point to the possibility that the countdown to war will begin as the administration of US President Joe Biden puts real pressure on Netanyahu's government to stop Gaza. war because of the fear of all-out confrontation and the outbreak of regional war.”

failed option

Akiva Eldar explained that the current Israeli government does not have any political plans for the post-war days, but only deals with the Gaza Strip from a military perspective, with the aim of eliminating Hamas and changing the political reality of the Gaza Strip, and this is what has proven to be the case is a failure and will not come true.

The political analyst pointed out that Netanyahu's government, which is composed of far-right parties, settlers, religious and Orthodox parties, is unable to develop any political program with the Palestinians with a regional and international perspective and insists on the military option. Although it proved to be ineffective.

Ron Ben Yishai, a military analyst for the Ynet website, which is owned by the newspaper “Novovovo”, recalled his impressions of the ground battles carried out by the Israeli Army Engineer Corps, which were trying to dismantle the arsenal system and blow up Tunnel entrance. Those that were discovered.

According to Ben-Ishai, a simple spark in a Hamas weapons facility and tunnel entrance could cause a massive explosion that would undo some of the Israeli military's achievements on the ground.

Ben-Ishai recorded an impression of the mouth of a tunnel where Israeli forces detonated it, killing six soldiers, and noted that the tunnel reflected the scope and extent of the dangers of Hamas's military production system. Explosives, ammunition and missile factories at multiple locations in the Gaza Strip are underground, unknown to Israel.

In the absence of a sincere plan by Israel on the political level to achieve the goals of the war, military analyst Amos Harel quoted in Haaretz newspaper the statement of Defense Minister Yov Galante who officially announced the transition of the Gaza Strip The northern army entered the third phase of the war, saying that “this statement means the extension of the war and does not herald an end to the war soon.”

unrealistic goals

The military analyst pointed out that Hamas is posing many challenges to the Israeli army, not only invading various areas of the Gaza Strip, causing heavy losses to army soldiers, equipment and military vehicles, but also in areas deep in Israel. .

He added that the recent salvoes of rockets fired from the Gaza Strip into “Greater Tel Aviv” proved that Hamas was fully capable of continuing to disrupt Israel's internal front.

Contrary to these developments and facts on the ground, the military analyst believes that the Israeli government has raised the ceiling on its war goals, which, although they appear unrealistic and unattainable, are now faced with as the war progresses. Political and alliance crises. Entering the fourth month. Harel said: “It is clear that the goal of the war is to eliminate the rule of Hamas, destroy its arsenal, free Israeli detainees and allow people to return… Gaza cover“It’s not there yet and it’s still far from it.”

Nahum Bania, a political analyst at “Novoiye”, wrote an article under the title “How do we get out of the well we fell into?”, pointing out that the events of October 7, 2023 put Israel in a difficult position. A deep well, and getting out of it means achieving declared war goals that have proven to be unrealistic and cannot be achieved no matter how the fighting continues.

Bania explained that the reality on the ground proves that the fighting of the past three weeks has not changed reality, but has caused casualties among Tel Aviv soldiers. In addition, Israel is responsible for the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip.

He said: “The events of the war damage Israel's global image and will not bring us closer to a victory that does not exist in the first place. Even if there is an assassination.” Yahya Sanwar or Mohammad Aldiv Even if it is both, the facts and results of the battle will not change. “

Baniya believes the Israeli government must negotiate a comprehensive exchange deal with Hamas that guarantees the release of all kidnapped Israelis while maintaining the movement's rule in the Gaza Strip.

He noted that this was a humiliating defeat for Israel, saying “Maybe we are right to negotiate with Hamas because the cost of failure is high. Killing all those captured by Hamas would be a disservice to Israel.” A disgrace to the conscience.” Israeli Society. “