Researchers at Imperial College London predict that the remaining carbon budget (RCB) will be lower than climate experts had previously predicted.
The results show Research The report, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, estimates there is no more than a 50% chance of avoiding global temperature rise of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius per year by 2030.
Researchers estimate that the available carbon budget has been reduced by about half since 2020, requiring governments around the world to make quick decisions to meet targets. Paris climate agreement Earth’s temperature should not increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius compared with temperatures recorded in the pre-industrial era of the 19th century, and every effort should be made to prevent increases above 1.5 degrees Celsius.
To achieve both goals, carbon emissions must be reduced as quickly as possible in a bid to limit climate change that is already causing some countries to suffer extreme weather phenomena.
Calculation is not accurate
Over the past few years, researchers specializing in climate science have tried to calculate how much future carbon emissions can be allowed without harming the global climate, an amount they call the available carbon budget.
he predicted a report The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) previously said in 2018 that we could avoid global temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius by 50% if carbon emissions did not exceed 580 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.
As for the new study, its results predict that the carbon budget required to achieve the same goal would not exceed 250 gigatonnes of CO2.
The carbon budget is expected to last 14 years, until around 2032, according to calculations in a report released in 2018. Researchers at Imperial College recalculated and found that previous predictions were inaccurate and announced that if annual emissions were fixed at 40 gigatonnes (the amount recorded in 2022), the available budget would be enough until 2029.
As the carbon budget expires and the “net-zero carbon emissions” goal cannot be achieved, the world may face severe climate change that is difficult to control. The term “net-zero carbon emissions” refers to the idea that human activities produce an amount of greenhouse gases equivalent to the amount we can remove from the atmosphere.
In addition to the effects of carbon emissions and greenhouse gases, Earth’s temperature may also rise due to natural factors such as melting ice and changes in ocean circulation. On the other hand, vegetative cover such as forests absorbs large amounts of carbon dioxide and helps lower temperatures.
Not enough steps
and in statement reporter Robin Lambole, the lead researcher of the study, explained in an article on the Eurekalert platform that the results confirm that countries around the world are not taking enough measures to ensure that the increase in the earth’s temperature remains below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Explaining the results, Rambol said: “The remaining carbon budget is very small and as long as these percentages of emissions remain at current levels, we are less than ten years away from the expiration of that budget.”
The researchers explain that reducing carbon emissions and achieving “net-zero carbon emissions” in the coming years may help stabilize Earth’s temperature through the interplay of factors that increase and decrease heat.
To reach these conclusions, the researchers took advantage of newly released carbon emissions data, in addition to studying the effects of rising Earth temperatures from gases other than carbon dioxide, such as methane, and relied on accurate and advanced mathematical models.
In an Al Jazeera interview with Dr. Hisham Saeed Ali, former national coordinator of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, he explained the difficulty in validating the new study’s findings because it relies on a different set of equations than Actual measurement.
According to his vision, Ali pointed out that completely abandoning fossil fuels is unrealistic and almost a pure fantasy, since the generation of renewable energy and the mechanisms for its manufacture require the use of fossil fuels. Therefore, preventing the use of this fuel does not solve the problem of increasing carbon emissions, but relies on an “energy mix” that combines fossil fuels and renewable fuels to limit the use of fossil fuels and increase carbon emissions. the use of the latter.
Asked to what extent the Arab world would be affected if efforts to maintain the planet’s temperature fail, Ali explained that climate change has already affected several Arab countries such as Algeria and Libya, and that temperatures in Egypt have risen significantly.
He added: “Arabian coastal cities may face greater risks in the future due to rising sea levels, which could lead to flooding of multiple areas and hinder life there. Dust storms may become more severe and temperatures may rise to unprecedented levels levels.” rise, which could lead to some health-related risks. “Human and agricultural productivity.