Occupied Jerusalem—— Although there is a consensus in Israel that all those detained by the resistance in the Gaza Strip must be released, military analysts have different estimates of this mechanism and the course and development of the war, as they guarantee that the truce will have an impact on the declared ceasefire . Israel’s war goals.
As the truce enters its second day, Israeli military analysts unanimously estimate that the temporary ceasefire represents a victory for Hamas but a setback and destruction of Israel’s declared war goals. This is in line with the estimates of political analysts, who confirmed that the agreement is binding because of a “moral responsibility” for detainees in the Gaza Strip. Most importantly, because the government of Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to liberate them.
Political analysts agree that Israel does not receive the prisoners with joy and a sense of victory or achievement, but rather with silence and mixed feelings, reflecting the losses suffered by the Hamas movement at the political level before it was forced to do so. Accept a prisoner exchange agreement after ground military operations fail to liberate prisoners.
“We accept them silently.”
Nahoum Bania, a political analyst with “Novoivo Izvestia”, wrote an article titled “We received them silently”, pointing out that the war reached its climax after entering its eighth week and a temporary ceasefire came into effect.
He said, “The war in Gaza is being fought without restraint by the Israeli military, but when the ceasefire starts, people ask a lot of questions: Where is it going, how long is it going to last, what are we doing here? And the word shuffle.” “This creates fear at the political level that the military will return to the Israeli discourse. “
Bania said that behind the show of unity during the joint war council visit and press conference, “there were intense and hidden disputes and discussions. The exchange agreement was reluctantly accepted because the military operation did not achieve its objectives and achieved nothing.” any results and achieved the return of some detainees by accepting the exchange agreement and agreeing to a temporary truce”.
He explained that due to the first phase of the exchange agreement, “there was no room to beat the drum of victory,” pointing to the message that Netanyahu was trying to promote as if Israel had achieved something significant in the negotiations. “Far from the truth,” adding, “Netanyahu would rather bury his head in the sand. Talking about a ceasefire puts his government at risk of disintegration and collapse.”
The same suggestion was echoed by Haaretz’s Arab and Middle East affairs analyst Zvi Barel, who suggested that the swap deal could be “a way to protect the Hamas leader from an assassination attempt that Netanyahu has hinted at.” insurance policy,” noting Qatar’s good offices. Talks with Israel demonstrate its strategic importance.
Confirming the decline of the political echelon and its acceptance of Hamas demands, the Israeli writer said, “The most interesting part was omitted from the briefings of the Israeli parties, according to which Israel agreed to move its military forces away from Saladin Street, connecting The southern Gaza Strip is the central axis of northern Gaza. It is the only transit route for thousands of displaced people from the northern Gaza Strip.
In contrast to what happened after the ceasefire actually began, Barel said Israel agreed during the ceasefire not to approach or attack displaced persons and residents who would pass on the road, even if they were moving north, adding that this “raised the “Concerns about Hamas members’ freedom of movement during the truce.” They operate non-stop between the two parts of the area.
He noted that the terms of the ceasefire agreement clarify the dilemmas faced by Israel, particularly regarding the nature and duration of the ceasefire, as well as concerns that the ceasefire will give Hamas additional time to organize its forces, noting that the return of Israeli detainees has not yet been discussed or the issue of corpses.
Hard times ahead for Israel
“Haaretz” military analyst Amos Harel believes that the repatriation of some detainees will not bring joy to Israeli society. He pointed out that Israel will face difficult days related to the continued negotiations to release more detainees. , as well as the course of the war and its developments after its cessation. Improvised shootings, and how this will be reflected in future ground incursions into the southern Gaza Strip.
The military analyst explained that despite the temporary truce and the first phase of the exchange agreement, there are still many obstacles on the road, as the Israeli side has not yet resolved issues related to the declared goal of the war to destroy Hamas’s rule and military objectives. capabilities and release all Israeli detainees.
He pointed out that Hamas and Palestinian factions are still detaining a large number of Israeli civilians and military personnel, so they will continue to conduct other war exercises and will also escalate psychological warfare against the Israeli people in order to reach a comprehensive peace solution. Exchange agreements and end the war.
Pull the rope tight to the end
In terms of military affairs, Yoav Limor, a military analyst at the “Israel Hayom” newspaper, believes that the Hamas movement will adopt a “tug-of-war” policy and seek to prolong the confrontation to gain time to achieve its goals. He said the ceasefire was to prevent the collapse of his rule in Gaza and the erosion of his military power.
The military analyst believes that the agreement is a necessary step to achieve Israel’s war goals, saying, “The agreement is a compromise between hopes, dreams and reality, and in the Gaza incident, Hamas leader Yahya The Stubborn Reality of Sinwar”.
In an attempt to seek any Israeli gains from the truce, Limour said: “Unfortunately, it is not currently possible to reach a better deal to return detainees to the country. As negotiations progress, Ha Mas will increase and at the same time, the dilemma on the Israeli side will deepen.”
Regarding the dilemma, the military analyst explained: “We are talking about a possible exchange agreement and perhaps a comprehensive agreement, and the Israeli public must understand that we are facing a painful situation that we are talking about, as well as the release of the oldest Palestinian prisoners, such as Hassan Salama, Muhannad Shurem, Abbas Said, Ibrahim Hamed and Abdullah Barghouti, to Israeli policymakers A nightmare.”
It is thought that extending the ceasefire and extending the truce in exchange for the release of more Israeli and foreign detainees opens up the possibility of a long-term ceasefire for Hamas, leaving Israel facing a greater challenge when it comes to stopping the war.